All change in the Republican heartland

US: Ohio voters feel the GOP has been in power too long, writes Denis Staunton in Cincinnati

US: Ohio voters feel the GOP has been in power too long, writes Denis Staunton in Cincinnati

Republican representative Steve Chabot was working hard to persuade his audience that next month's mid-term elections matter, warning of uncontrolled immigration, higher taxes, soaring crime and a decline in moral values if Democrats win.

There was little sign of excitement, however, among the two dozen or so voters at the Evergreen Retirement Committee in suburban Cincinnati, most of whom sat still in their comfortable chairs or motorised wheelchairs as one woman just carried on with her knitting.

"If the Democrats win in November, Nancy Pelosi will become the Speaker of the House. She's a nice lady, but Nancy Pelosi represents San Francisco. She's a San Francisco liberal with San Francisco values," pleaded Chabot - but nobody seemed to care.

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After 12 years in Congress, Chabot is in danger of losing his seat next month as a surge of voter hostility threatens to end the Republicans' domination of Ohio, the state that decided the 2004 presidential election and which strategists in both parties see as a key to victory in 2008.

For almost 20 years, the state governorship, both houses of the state legislature, most of the 88 county courthouses, a big majority of Ohio's congressional delegation and both US Senate seats have been in Republican hands.

"All of this may change this year. The Democrats could win every state-wide office," says Carl Weiser, political editor of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

The New York Times reported yesterday that the Republican National Committee had given up hope that Senator Mike DeWine would hold his seat in November and was giving no more money to his campaign.

Republican candidate Kenneth Blackwell is trailing by 13 points in the race to succeed Governor Bob Taft, who was convicted last year of failing to disclose gifts he received from lobbyists.

At least three Republican House seats, including Chabot's, are in danger of falling to the Democrats as voters express their frustration with a party many feel has been in power for too long.

"There comes a point where people want a change. They feel they've got away with a lot of stuff for a long time," says Weiser.

When President George Bush won Ohio - and the presidency - in 2004, it was partly because Republicans succeeded in motivating conservatives to vote in record numbers. They were helped by a ballot initiative that year banning gay marriage, an issue guaranteed to excite the religious right.

This year's most prominent ballot initiative is a proposal to increase the minimum wage from $5.15 an hour to $6.85, which is expected to win overwhelming approval and is likely to boost Democratic voter turnout.

At the Evergreen Retirement Community, Chabot wanted to talk about tax and national security but when the audience started asking questions, it became clear that they cared about one issue above all - illegal immigration.

Chabot reassured them that he opposed the president's proposal for comprehensive immigration reform, which would allow most of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the US to stay in the country and eventually apply for citizenship.

"We ought not to allow folks to become citizens if they came here illegally. It's a big mistake to allow these folks to cut in front of the line and get amnesty," he said.

Chabot favours building a fence along the border with Mexico, imposing tougher penalties on illegal immigrants and those who help them and making English the official language of the US. He told the seniors that illegal immigrants are placing a burden on society that had a direct impact on the tax bill of ordinary Americans.

"There are a whole lot of people receiving health benefits who didn't pay taxes. Even if they did pay taxes, it costs $16,000 to $20,000 a year to educate two kids for a year. Do you think they're paying that much in taxes?" he asked.

Once the fourth largest city in the US and dubbed the Queen City of the West, Cincinnati has seen its population drop sharply and crime soar since 2001, when a police officer shot an unarmed black man dead, sparking four days of rioting.

Eastern Cincinnati, which makes up most of Ohio's 2nd congressional district, bears the scars of urban decline, with boarded up storefronts, cheap bars and pawnshops lining the streets. It was here that Pennsylvania Representative John Murtha came last Saturday to campaign for Democratic congressional candidate Victoria Wulsin, who is mounting a strong challenge to the Republican Jean Schmidt.

Schmidt became notorious last year when she used one of her first speeches on the House floor to denounce Murtha, a decorated former marine who served in Korea and Vietnam, as a coward.

A few days earlier, Murtha had called for a change of course in Iraq, declaring that the presence of US forces was fuelling the insurgency. Schmidt later apologised, but in the dingy basement of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers hall on Saturday nobody was in the mood to forgive her.

"We in the 2nd District will not put up with any more Schmidt," squealed Wulsin, generating chants of "No more Schmidt" from the crowd.

Tom Cassidy, an army officer who served in Iraq, accused the Bush administration of betraying the armed forces by sending young men and women into an unnecessary war and failing to take care of them properly on their return. "Every day I was in Iraq, I had one question in the back of my mind: Why? Why am I here? Why are we here? Why is this happening?" he said.

Predicting that the Democrats would gain 40 seats in November, more than twice the number they need for a majority in the House, Murtha said that none of America's problems can be resolved until the war in Iraq had ended.

Given that Bush still has more than two years as president, I asked Murtha how a Democratic victory in November would change the US strategy in Iraq.

"When you're in a minority, they ignore you. If they don't need your votes, they ignore you. If we get the majority, we'll have all kinds of investigations. We'll hold people accountable. When the Democrats take over, you'll see a big sign outside saying: US Congress - open for business," he said.