THE Alliance Party leader, Lord Alderdice, yesterday predicted both a new IRA ceasefire and a third Drumcree stand off. He was speaking at a press reception to introduce the party's 17 candidates for the forthcoming election.
Lord Alderdice said that while there was a strong possibility of a new ceasefire, it would be primarily based on the best interests of the republican movement. He said any new ceasefire would be treated with scepticism. "We will want to see evidence of good faith but it will be for them to provide it and for us to be persuaded."
While his party would not set preconditions for talks with Sinn Fein, he would not be drawn on what evidence he would need to engage in discussions: "If I were to start setting down the evidence and you were to start quoting me, then the republican movement would start describing those as my preconditions.
"They know perfectly well what they need to do to persuade us of their honesty and their commitment to peaceful means. They don't need any instruction on these matters. They are very sophisticated and they know."
Describing the situation in the North as "extremely dangerous", he said: "We are clearly facing a Drumcree Three. All the indications are that significant elements on both sides, want to find a resolution but quite powerful elements on both sides do not want to see any solution, want a confrontation and are determined to ensure that will happen.
"Those politicians who either promoted or encouraged or were part of the previous Drumcrees have shown no evidence at all that they want to do anything other than be part of any succeeding Drumcree," he said.
Asked if he was pointing the finger at the UUP leader, Lord Alderdice said many people believed the reason Mr David Trimble was elected leader of the Ulster Unionist Party was because of his behaviour at Drumcree One.
"I believe he is somewhat frightened of the monster that he has released. I think he does have anxieties about the impact that this could have in Northern Ireland. I think he is now riding a tiger that he cannot dismount. I don't think it is something that is now in his control. I think he has released a genie of a very dangerous order," he said.
"To stoke the fires of Drumcree One, to capitalise on it, in his way, at Drumcree Two and associate himself with elements which subsequently were deduced to be criminal elements were very ill advised and dangerous.
He urged Mr Trimble to take a position of "robust leadership" which strongly supports a move away from confrontation and towards negotiation. "Then I think he cannot escape the responsibility for any of the things that happened last year or any things that might happen this year."
Lord Alderdice said the Garvaghy Residents Association and many Orangemen wanted to find a resolution. "I think the MP for Upper Bann ought to be prepared to meet any of the people in his own constituency in order to avoid a Drumcree Three."
The Alliance Party is standing in more constituencies in this election than in the last 20 years and is confident of doing well in four While it has been "strengthening up" in East Antrim and South Belfast, it is more hopeful in North Down and East Belfast.
He described this as a "watershed election" and urged the electorate to change their traditional voting patterns.
"In this election campaign the initial signs to us have been quite encouraging but the overall context is a very dark and dangerous one and therefore I don't feel in any position whatever to predict what the result might be.
"I think that could change one way or another over the next four weeks with questions of marches and counter demonstrations, splits and pacts. All of these issues - are very much alive and very much around and could be very dangerous for Northern Ireland", Lord Alderdice said.