Agreement parties hope to exploit goodwill

President Clinton delivered a Christmas message of exhortation and aspiration in Belfast yesterday

President Clinton delivered a Christmas message of exhortation and aspiration in Belfast yesterday. Perhaps more was expected but if there was no immediate breakthrough, no one in the pro-Belfast Agreement camp appeared too daunted.

The President flew out of Belfast for dinner with Tony Blair at Chequers yesterday evening having outlined the skeleton of a deal. Unsurprisingly, it involves new synchronisation around policing, demilitarisation and decommissioning.

But "no quick fixes", as Seamus Mallon said. Let's exploit the goodwill generated by President Clinton's visit was the general view among the pro-agreement parties.

If this US presidential visit lacked the electric energy that animated Northern Ireland when President Clinton first visited five years ago the charge was still positive.

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President Clinton used his Odyssey Centre speech to appeal directly to the people to maintain the agreement.

To applause, he advised the 8,000 in the Odyssey and the public beyond of their responsibilities: "No one can afford to sit on the sidelines. The people of Northern Ireland must be clear and unequivocal in your support for peace. Remember, the enemies of peace don't require your approval. All they need is your apathy."

Hard politics was the order of the day at Stormont in the morning, with Gerry Adams, Seamus Mallon, David Trimble, Tony Blair and the President engaging in "plain speaking".

But there is still quite an amount of talking to do. It was obvious yesterday that the time is not right for an agreement, notwithstanding the Clinton visit.

But if a deal is to be struck it must happen quickly, otherwise the shadow of Westminster and, perhaps, local elections will preclude risk-taking by Gerry Adams, David Trimble and Seamus Mallon.

President Clinton spelt it out tersely: "First, the Patten report must be implemented, and on that basis leaders from every part of the community must commit themselves to make the new police service work. There must be security normalisation and arms must be put beyond use."

Judging by the sequence in which the US leader made his point, the first move must come from his friend Tony Blair.

The Police Act is not miles distant from Patten. With pressure from Seamus Mallon, it should be even closer when Peter Mandelson finally publishes his policing implementation plan. But, as far as Sinn Fein is concerned, Patten can only be exhumed by new legislation in Westminster, and that, British sources indicate, is not going to happen.

"Normalisation" means toppling the south Armagh towers and decommissioning means, to use President Clinton's phrase, "ballots not bullets".

These of course are big issues, and a resolution lies in another choreographed two-step. The British government steps out with a move on policing and/or a timetable for demolishing the watchtowers in south Armagh, republicans do likewise with real engagement with de Chastelain and real detail on how IRA arms would be put beyond use.

So it is back to "jaw-jaw" involving the British and Irish governments, Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists.

January makes sense as a deadline because any new deal would have to be put to the Ulster Unionist Council. Republican thinking is that the more time Mr Trimble has to sell a deal to his council, the less likely he is to carry the day.

President Clinton was accorded a grand farewell. But, while there is a possibility that he could some day return as a Jimmy Carter-type roving peacemaker, he is now out of the frame. The real responsibility is back where it belongs, with the two governments and the pro-agreement parties.

Before leaving Northern Ireland he said it would be "irresponsible" to allow what has been achieved to collapse. Implementing Patten, demilitarisation and putting arms beyond use was his suggested way forward. One would expect that over dinner last night as a final payback for a special relationship, Bill Clinton urged Tony Blair to begin the two-step.