Rising emissions will mean deeper cuts required, Government told

Greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase last year, meaning deeper cuts will need to be made in the coming years to reach legally binding targets, the Government will be told on Thursday.

A report from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), published on Thursday, finds that instead of coming down, Ireland’s emissions continued to rise by 4.7 per cent last year, rebounding to above the 2019, pre-Covid levels.

The EPA warns that this will need immediate, deeper cuts to emissions to stay within the legal limits.

The news comes amid internal Government wrangles over the level of greenhouse gas reductions that should be borne by each sector in the coming years. While the Government has adopted far-reaching targets and the Dáil has enshrined them in law, there is not yet a clear plan for how they are to be achieved, sector by sector.

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“The targets are one thing,” one Cabinet Minister said on Wednesday night. “It’s the implementation that will be problematic.”

Minister for Transport and Climate Action Eamon Ryan and Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue met on Wednesday afternoon to discuss how much agricultural emissions should be reduced between now and 2030, but the meeting ended without reaching agreement. Both sides are optimistic that agreement can be reached by early next week, but Government sources could not confirm that the gap between the two sides is being narrowed.

The Government has already approved a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for the agriculture sector of 22-30 per cent, but Ministers must decide now on an exact level. A lower level of reductions in agriculture means there must be more reductions across other sectors of the economy and society if the targets – now set down in law as a legal obligation for the Government – are to be met.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael backbenchers, as well as farmers’ representatives, want the level to be set at 22 per cent or close to it, while the Green Party want the farming contribution to be nearer the 30 per cent mark. Some experts have warned that a lower level for agriculture would mean the targets for other sectors, such as transport, would be unrealistically high.

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But Thursday’s news from the EPA suggests no sector will escape from swingeing cuts to their carbon emissions in the coming years. The carbon budget up to 2025 agreed by the Oireachtas requires emissions to reduce by 4.8 per cent on average each year for five years, but the continuing rise in emissions, and delays in putting in place ceilings for each sector of the economy, means that progress is already well behind schedule.

The EPA warns that 23.5 per cent of the 2021-2025 carbon budget has already been used up, “requiring an 8.4 per cent average annual emissions reduction from 2022 to 2025 to stay within budget”.

Agriculture continues to be by far the biggest source of Irish emissions – at 37.5 per cent. This is the second year in a row of increases, the EPA says.*

Agricultural emissions did not reduce during Covid restrictions and are now 15 per cent higher than the 1990 level, it says.

But speaking in Japan, Taoiseach Micheál Martin sought to play down the demands that would be placed on farmers to reduce herds.

“Farmers are up for this,” insisted Mr Martin. “They understand climate change – we all do.”

He said changing farming practices and leveraging technology rather than government-directed cuts would reduce emissions.

Meanwhile, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said people would not be “punished” if climate targets could not be achieved.

Mr Varadkar described reports that families would be asked to get rid of their second cars to meet targets as “harebrained”.

“These targets are very ambitious and we do have to do everything we can to achieve them. But we’re not going to penalise and punish people if they can’t be achieved,” he said.

*This article was amended on Thursday, July 21st, 2022 after the EPA clarified that agricultural emissions decreased from 2018 to 2019, meaning last year’s increase was the second and not the third in a row as their press release had originally stated.