Dublin Central at a glance
Political Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones reports from the RDS, where, according to tallies, Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats looks set to top the poll in the Dublin Central byelection.
Video: Enda O’Dowd
Ennis emerging as victor in battleground areas
The tally data has been crunched by the folks over at Ireland Votes.
From the Jack Horgan-Jones: Looking at the ward-level data, there’s a really clear picture emerging of Ennis prevailing anywhere that might have been a battleground, with Hutch storming the northeast inner city, where Steenson also polled well.
In the areas around the Rotunda and Temple Street Hospitals, taking in the stretch east of O’Connell Street and down to the Liffey, Hutch beat Boylan at a canter, taking in more than 40 per cent of the first-preference vote tallied in North Dock C, for example, where he and Steenson shared almost 65 per cent of ballots tallied. It was a similar story in Mountjoy A, where the Sean McDermott Street flats are – they took more than 70 per cent combined here.
Sinn Féin are only prevailing in the tallies in the western part of the inner city, coming out on top in Inns Quay C and Aran Quay C, which take in Smithfield and the areas around it.
But in the rapidly gentrifying inner suburbs around Oxmantown, Grangegorman and Stoneybatter, it all swung towards Ennis – with Boylan prevailing only in Arran Quay D, which is home to O’Devaney Gardens, where she originally comes from.
Boylan also took all of Cabra West, and a slice of Cabra East which neighbours Mary Lou McDonald’s constituency office – but apart from that the map turns almost completely purple: Cabra East A, which takes in large swathes of Phibsborough and the housing estates to the west of Glasnevin cemetery, swung heavily for Ennis, the Greens’ Janet Horner and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam.
And as you continue around that arc of the more middle-class areas of Glasnevin and Drumcondra, it is Ennis all the way. In the tally data, he’s also prevailing in Ballybough and East Wall.
A pocket of the inner suburbs is given over to Janet Horner, who eclipsed Ennis in the tally in Inns Quay A – which takes in the areas around the Mater hospital, edging up towards Phibsborough.
Steenson doubles share of vote from 2024
Cllr Malachy Steenson has arrived at the Dublin Central count centre in the RDS.
The anti-immigrant Independent expressed frustrations around the media and the coverage of fellow candidate Gerry Hutch.
Earlier this afternoon, Steenson’s share of the vote had almost doubled since 2024. He was sitting on 9.5 per cent in the tally, up from 4.89 per cent two years ago.
Dublin Central counting second preference votes
Tally counters are looking at second-preference votes in Dublin Central.
From Marie O’Halloran in the RDS: A sample of 250 of Gerry Hutch’s ballots showed 47 per cent going to Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan, 15.6 per cent going to the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis and 38 per cent non-transferable.
Based on that tally, says one Sinn Féin analyst, “the final destination between Ennis and Boylan would effectively favour Boylan by about 900 votes”.
Looking out to the final count, when Sinn Féin expects Hutch to be the last candidate eliminated, Ennis needs to be about 1,000 votes ahead. If the gap were smaller than 900, Boylan would win but based on the first tally the Social Democrats are already about 500 votes ahead.
Ennis is expected to keep getting more votes through transfers as the lower candidates are excluded and the Sinn Féin tally expert reckons Ennis’s lead will be above 1,000.
A Social Democrats tallyman looking at Boylan’s second preferences noted a big change from previous elections. Previously many Sinn Féin voters voted 1, 2 for their candidates and mostly stopped after that, he said.
This time around they are voting farther down the ballot paper and transferring. Based on one sample of about 200 ballots – but this was only one sample – the second places favoured Ennis, followed by Hutch, then the Green’s Janet Horner and People Before Profit’s Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin.
More candidates have been arriving at the Dublin Central count centre in the RDS including the Green Party’s Janet Horner and People Before Profit’s Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin.
‘I tried not to let Hutch set the tone’
‘We’ve had a really good day’: Green Party candidate Janet Horner said in the RDS with regard to her byelection campaign in Dublin Central.
Horner: ‘We have to focus on the positive’
Green candidate and councillor Janet Horner expressed her frustration about the media focus on Independent candidate Gerry Hutch and the view that created of Dublin Central as a constituency.
From Marie O’Halloran in the count centre: Arriving to applause from her colleagues at the RDS count she said the party had shown a strong performance because “people wanted to see Greens strongly represent this constituency again”. Sitting Green TD Neasa Houricane lost her seat in the 2024 general election, as did all bar party leader Roderic O’Gorman.
The party may not have made it this time but would be working hard for a seat next time, she said. In the final tally Horner came in just 0.1 per cent behind Hutch, who was on 11.7 per cent.
Horner said: “The frustration I’ve had from the outset and since the 2024 general election is how much the narrative [has been] around Hutch. That’s been behind this idea of what Dublin Central is and this had led the media conversation.
“So, for the most part I tried really hard not to let him set the tone of the conversation of what we were talking to people about.”
She added: “But the electorate need to hear from time to time that there is a strong and firm rejection of the type of divisive politics that comes from the candidate.
Horner said she “stepped up” and “firmly rejected the type of politics that has been offered by people who had been capitalising on a deep and reasonable and rational frustration that so many people have”.
She said those people tried “to capitalise on that to drive further division and to promote their own political career but not actually offering any action”.
It showed and was perpetuating a “narrow stereotype” of a “wonderful, vibrant Dublin Central”.
It was “necessary not to let the most negative figures in every particular election drive the narrative”.
“We have to focus on the positive. We have to deal with the real issues in our community and positively engage,” she said, instead of “just with anger”.
‘Today isn’t our day’, says McDonald
Over in the west, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald told the media “today isn’t our day” in the Galway West byelection.
‘Work needs to be done’, says Fianna Fáil’s O’Brien
Minister for Transport and Fianna Fáil director of elections Darragh O’Brien has been speaking to the media in the RDS.
Martin’s leadership ‘absolutely not’ in question, says O’Brien
Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil is “absolutely not” in question after disappointing showings in byelection tallies, especially in Dublin Central, Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien has said.
More from Jack Horgan-Jones in the RDS: O’Brien dismissed questions about Martin’s future, saying: “Since after the 2020 general election I was asked would Micheál lead us into the general election ... Not only did he do that he came back returned as Taoiseach, with the largest party in Dáil Éireann.”
O’Brien said he wouldn’t try to “sugarcoat” the party’s result in the race to fill the seat vacated by his former cabinet colleague Paschal Donohoe, with Fianna Fáil candidate John Stephens set to finish well adrift of the leaders as tallies place him on only slightly more than 4 per cent of the vote.
“We knew the challenge that we would have in this constituency, we’ve one councillor, we haven’t won a Dáil seat here since 2007 – that means we’ll redouble our efforts to rebuild on the ground in Dublin Central,” he said.
“The result, I’m not going to sugar coat it, of course we’re disappointed with the vote, that’s nothing to do with our candidate
“It was potentially down to the fact that the groundwork potentially over the course of the last number of years hasn’t been as it should have been.”
Asked whether he would one day like to lead Fianna Fáil, O’Brien sidestepped the question saying he didn’t deal in hypotheticals and was focused on his work as a minister.
“We’ve a job of work to do, we’ve about 3½ years remaining in this Government’s term, to deliver across housing, to deliver across jobs, health and education, the areas we’re focused on,” he said.
Listen: Ennis and Kyne in poll position on a bad day for big parties
A picture is emerging in the byelection counts. Hugh is joined on the latest Inside Politics podcast by Pat Leahy, Harry McGee and Jack Horgan-Jones to discuss what we have learned so far.
Ennis and Kyne in poll position on a bad day for big parties
Electoral predictions of Hutch have not panned out, says Sherlock
Predictions of veteran criminal and independent candidate Gerry Hutch being an “electoral force to be reckoned with” have not panned out, Labour’s sitting TD for Dublin Central has said.
More from Jack Horgan-Jones: Speaking at the RDS count centre on Saturday, Marie Sherlock said the Hutch vote had “slipped” amid signs that his first preference vote is likely to decline from the 2024 general election – although he seems likely to grow his share of the first preference vote based on tallies from earlier in the day.
“We heard a lot about Gerard Hutch during the election, we have seen that his vote has slipped and I think that speaks volumes about peoples’ faith in Gerard Hutch being that positive progressive voice for Dublin Central.”
“This playing up of him as a major electoral force to be reckoned with has not proved correct today.”
Sherlock reeled Hutch in during a close count in the race to fill the fourth seat in Dublin Central in the general election of 2024.
She said Independent councillor Malachy Steenson’s increased vote is “no surprise”.
“We have seen how the far right have tried to divide, have tried to sow bitterness and resentment on the ground,” she said.
“In other parties on the left, some parties, not all, across the left, we are doing our absolute utmost to ensure that we bring that positive vision to people,” she said, arguing that people can be brought around by the argument that “it is the Government failing them, not migrants”.
Dublin Central front-runner Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats has arrived at the byelection count centre in the RDS.
O’Dea says she is ‘satisfied’ with byelection performance
Labour’s candidate Ruth O’Dea has said she is “satisfied” with her performance in the Dublin Central race.
Jack Horgan-Jones writes: She also suggested a formal transfer pact between parties on the left should be considered going forward.
She said there was a “strong message being sent to the Government that they’re not delivering”.
She said parties on the left “are stronger together than we are apart, and we need to unite more, definitely.”
“If we do that, like we did on the [President Catherine] Connolly campaign, we’re a force to be reckoned with.”
Asked if this should extend to a formal transfer pact she said; “There’s a case for it, absolutely”.
Sherlock, said she took “great hope” from the result in Dublin Central and extended her congratulations to Daniel Ennis, the Social Democrats councillor who looks highly likely to take the seat.
Social Democrats may have two seats in same constituency for first time
Social Democrats candidate Cllr Daniel Ennis arrived at the RDS with his fiance Chloe, party leader Holly Cairns, sitting Dublin Central TD Gary Gannon and other party TDs to sustained applause and cheers.
From Marie O’Halloran: A guard of honour of party supporters formed to greet them as they arrived for a media “doorstep” at the Dublin Central count centre.
He acknowledged being “a bit overwhelmed” as he faced the media.
Cairns described Ennis’s expected victory as a “really proud day for the party. It’s the first time we’ve had two seats in a constituency”.
“It’s a testament, of course, to Dan as an incredible candidate, his incredible campaign, also to the work that Gary’s done in terms of building our branches in Dublin Central and the support that we have there.”
She said theirs was a “hugely positive campaign – the message of hope and of inclusion and it really clearly resonated with voters in Dublin Central and we are just so immensely proud of him, of Gary, of all of the campaign team in Dublin Central”.
“It feels like an emotional day,” and it was “amazing” to see that voters looking for an alternative were looking to the Social Democrats, she said.
Winning an 11th seat will mean the Social Democrats will have improved speaking rights over Labour and will speak ahead of them in the Dáil.
The party leader said “the speaking order should represent the size of the party and it makes sense that that would happen”.
Ennis: ‘We want to represent everybody’
“We didn’t bend on who we were,” Daniel Ennis said when asked why he felt he got the votes above other Dublin Central candidates.
Marie O’Halloran writes: The Social Democrats councillor said, “we met people where they were, agree or disagree”.
“We want to represent everybody who calls Dublin Central home no matter their background, their social standing. It’s meeting people where they are and not judging”, and “treating people with respect”.
The response on the doorsteps was “amazing”, he said.
“Every canvas was literally better than the last.” He said there was a lot of online hate but “it bounces off me”. He said “they had the amazing team” and had 100 people out on different campuses a week”.
Gannon as sitting Dublin Central TD said he was not worried about his seat for the general election with two Social Democrats in the constituency.
“I want to build a big, brilliant party in the Social Democrats and in doing that we need to find big, brilliant people and in Daniel, we have one of those.”
On the question of whether there were two seats for the party in the constituency he said; “I think the Social Democrats in Dublin Central, we’ve always been a little underestimated.”
He said in each election “we’ve increased our vote share. Over the next three years “you’re going to have two people working together, actually giving the best representation Dublin Central has seen for a very, very long time.”
They had “always been competitive” with each other “and that’s not going to change but the beneficiaries will be the people of Dublin Central.”
Asked about competition with Sinn Féin, Cairns said: “I think it’s safe to say that people know where they stand with the Social Democrats. We don’t equivocate on issues, and I think that that stands to us”.
In all elections “we’ve gone from strength and strength”, she added.
“As for Sinn Féin and their position on things that’s a matter for them. I think they need to decide where they stand” as a party.
Fine Gael can win back Donohoe’s seat, says McAdam
Fine Gael candidate for Dublin Central Ray McAdam has said the party can win back the seat formerly held by Paschal Donohoe in the constituency.
From Jack Horgan-Jones: With the Social Democrat councillor Daniel Ennis primed to win the seat vacated by Donohoe, McAdam blamed the challenges of incumbency as his party faces losing the seat held by former minister for finance Paschal Donohoe since 2011.
McAdam, who tallies suggest has won significantly fewer votes than Donohoe’s last outing in the general election, told reporters at the RDS count centre: “We are a party in our fourth term in office, that is a challenge – ultimately that is the biggest challenge. We are a party that has been in Government now since 2011 and we could not have left more on the pitch”
“It’s a byelection, it’s not a general election. People decided to go the way they have I respect that, that is democracy. The great thing is people came out and voted yesterday.
“What we will do in Fine Gael across Dublin Central is to regroup, rebuild and we will come back stronger,” he said.
Dublin Central: As it stands
Ennis tops first count in Dublin Central
Social Democrat candidate Daniel Ennis has topped the poll on the first count in Dublin Central.
Ennis took 4,903 first preference votes, followed by Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan on 4,348.
Green candidate Janet Horner secured 2,907 votes, followed closely by independent Gerry Hutch on 2,817.
Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam secured 2,659.
Dublin Central full results here.
Five candidates eliminated so far
No candidate reached the quota of 12,435 on the first count.
After McAdam, the next highest polling candidate was anti-immigrant independent councillor Malachy Steenson on 2,342 votes, a much stronger result than his last campaign at the 2024 general election.
Next up is People Before Profit-Solidarity’s Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin on 1,681, Labour’s Ruth O’Dea on 1,454 and Fianna Fáil’s John Stephens on 1,049.
All other candidates received fewer than 1,000 votes.
Independents Mannix Flynn, Tony Corrigan, Colm Joseph Flood and John O’Leary, as well as Aontú Ian Noel Smyth were eliminated on the first count.
Of the now eliminated bottom five from the first count, just one candidate, independent John O’Leary, scored in the single digits.
He received seven first preference votes.
Fianna Fáil candidate John Stephens has been eliminated on the second count in the RDS with 1,120 votes.
Fianna Fáil candidate Cllr John Stephens was running in ninth position after the first count, when the Aontú candidate and four Independents were eliminated.
Marie O’Halloran writes: Independent Malachy Steenson received the largest number of transfers with 200, followed by Stephens with 71. Lagging far behind the leading candidates his exclusion was inevitable, but came at a very early stage in the counting.
Tánaiste praises Fine Gael candidates
Fine Gael fielded two grounded and experienced candidates in the Dublin Central and Galway West byelections, Tánaiste Simon Harris has said.
The party leader described both Ray McAdam in Dublin and Seán Kyne in Galway as “excellent candidates” who were “grounded in their communities and whose experienced mattered to voters”.
The Tánaiste’s statement comes as Kyne remains in the running for taking the seat left vacant in Galway West by Catherine Connolly after she was elected President.
Tallies earlier on Saturday showed him trailing very closely behind Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas but a first count has yet to be concluded in Salthill.
The party’s Dublin Central contender, and the capital’s Lord Mayor, Ray McAdam, is currently in fifth place after the second count concluded in the RDS.
McAdam is trailing well behind front-runner, Social Democrat councillor Daniel Ennis.
Strong transfer between Government parties
There was a strong transfer between the Government parties with Fine Gael’s Ray McAdams securing 553 votes following the exclusion of Fianna Fáil’s John Stephens.
Marie O’Halloran reports from the RDS: This puts McAdams him on 3,277 votes and he overtakes Green Party councillor Cllr Janet Horner who received 94 transfers and is now on 3,052 votes.
Social Democrats Cllr councillor Daniel Ennis got the second highest number of transfers from Fianna Fáil with 95 votes.
This puts him 565 votes ahead (5,049) of second placed Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan (4,484) who got 68 votes from Fianna Fáil.
Independent Gerard Hutch follows on 2,907 with 35 transfers.
Independent Malachy Steenson secured 54 votes bringing him to 2,596 votes
People Before Profit candidate Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin received 25 additional votes and is on 1,744 but may possibly be eliminated at the next count.
The Labour candidate got 87 transfers but remained in eighth place and was eliminated.
McDonald insists leadership position not up for debate
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has insisted her position is not up for debate despite looking set to come up short in the Dublin Central byelection.
Jack Horgan-Jones writes: The party’s share of the first preference vote dipped significantly in McDonald’s own constituency as its candidate Janice Boylan finished behind poll-topper Daniel Ennis.
Despite this, McDonald claimed the party was in growth mode and that a different story would be told in the next general election.
She also sought to dismiss any questions over her own leadership, saying it was a “settled matter”.
“There’s only one way to become the leader of Sinn Féin – and that’s at our annual ardfheis. There isn’t an alternative route for us, that’s how we decide our leader and that decision was taken three weeks ago at our ardfheis
“I am the leader of Sinn Féin – I will lead on, and the job of leader is that you are there on the good days and the bad, you are there when things go very much your way and you are there also when things get tight.”
She said the party was “building”.
“We are building. I’ve run in countless elections in Dublin Central and I have experienced myself the growth, the big surge in 2020 which was absolutely exceptional, unprecedented, and by the way unpredicted by everyone.”
McDonald dismissed suggestions that the party’s peak was behind it: “No absolutely not, we are scaling that mountain, that peak which is a change of government – don’t make that mistake, that would be a mistake on your part.”
McDonald argued that the growth in support for anti-establishment candidates Gerry Hutch and Malachy Steenson did not mean more for Sinn Féin than it did for any other party.
“It means the same for us as it does for anybody else. It tells us very clearly we enjoy very great support and it tells us we have the basis to build on. I’m focused on our project and our task.”
Sinn Féin ran ‘very positive campaign’, says Boylan
Janice Boylan, Sinn Féin’s candidate, said it had run a “very positive campaign”.
She said she was “very, very happy with how it went”, Jack Horgan-Jones reports.
Asked if the party would pursue a two-candidate strategy in the next general election, Boylan said “absolutely, we’ll be going out for that again”.
Dublin Central turnout level unsurprising, says electoral chief
The turnout in the Dublin Central byelection at 39.34 per cent is typical of those “when there’s no change of government at stake”, according to chief executive of An Coimisiún Toghcháin, Art O’Leary.
“This is simply to pick somebody to represent you in the constituency. So we’re not surprised by the turnout, but obviously we’re always hopeful that it would be larger.”
The boss of the independent Electoral Commission said however the turnout is much more accurate than the turnout in the general election “because of the big cleanup that’s being done on the register”.
“It’s probably 5 or 6 per cent more accurate,” he said.
Some 7,000 voters have deleted since the November 2024 general election and 900 voters added as part of efforts to get people to register to vote, and to create a more accurate register of voters.
These are “good numbers” he says but “whether they come out to vote is an entirely different matter”.
“It is really easy to register,” he said.
“It takes less than three minutes,” but voting is more difficult but in order to get to vote, it’s a little bit harder, you have to go to a particular polling station on a particular day in between particular hours and if you’re away or if you have work commitments or caring responsibilities, some people find that difficult.”
The commission has just started “a big research project on advanced voting and postal voting to see if we can make it a little bit easier for those people who want to vote but can’t”.
People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin has been eliminated on the fourth count in Dublin Central.
More than half of the candidates now eliminated
More than half of the candidates for Dublin Central have now been eliminated from the running.
Ó Ceannabháin amassed 1,853 votes before been ruled out, 761 votes behind Malachy Steenson.
Steenson enters the fifth count on 2,614.
Ennis’s lead at the top looks increasingly secure as the counting goes on.
There are now little more than 900 votes between the Social Democrat (5,512) and Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan (4,587).
Remember, the quota to be deemed elected in the constituency stands at 12,435.
