Warning of difficulty in cutting long-term jobless

IT will become increasingly difficult to reduce the numbers of long-term unemployed in the economy, according to a new study …

IT will become increasingly difficult to reduce the numbers of long-term unemployed in the economy, according to a new study of the labour market.

The report, Labour Market Study: Ireland, published by the European Commission was researched by Dr Philip O'Connell and Prof Jerry Sexton of the ESRI. It says that the present boom has made inroads into long-term unemployment but the figure has not fallen below 100,000 since the mid-1980s.

"Since it is the best-equipped among the long-term unemployed who tend to find work first, it may be increasingly difficult to achieve further reductions as the remaining body of long-term unemployed persons will tend to have an increasingly disadvantageous education and skills profile," the report says. There will, therefore, be a need for continuing intervention on the part of the State, if the persons concerned are to be reintegrated into employment."

On a more positive note, the report says that female and youth employment has increased significantly from the increased employment opportunities of the current economic boom. Youth unemployment, which ran at 25 per cent of those aged 15 to 24 in 1993, had fallen to 21 per cent by 1995.

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However, many of these extra jobs are part time. Part-time employment rose from 5 per cent of total employment in 1983 to 10 per cent in 1995. Almost 20 per cent of all women at work are in part-time jobs and they constitute over 70 per cent of workers in part-time employment.

This is happening even though Ireland has moved against the EU trend and managed to increase the numbers of people employed in manufacturing. The report says that the shift in industrial policy to give greater support to indigenous firms has been successful, although foreign investment continues to be the main source of jobs.

Concern is expressed at the growth in public service pay since the introduction of national agreements in 1987, but the report concludes that, overall, the economy has benefited from them.

The report was prepared for the Directorate-General for Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs and is available from the EC office in Dublin.