This Week: A Brexit-proofed Budget 2020

Meetings, indicators and results of interest to business, finance and economic community

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe:  Budget 2020 will be geared around trouble brewing ahead of the October 31st Brexit deadline. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe: Budget 2020 will be geared around trouble brewing ahead of the October 31st Brexit deadline. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

 

Monday

Indicators: Irish industrial production (Aug); UK Halifax house price index (Sep); German factory orders (Aug).

Meetings: NG Retail Summit (Powerscourt Hotel, Enniskerry, Co Wicklow).

Tuesday

Results: Aryzta.

Indicators: Irish vehicles licensed for first time (Sep); UK labour productivity (Q2); German industrial production (Aug); US business optimism index (Sep), PPI (Sep), economic optimism (Oct).

Meetings: Budget 2020.

If there is one thing that can compete for attention with Brexit, it is the budget. But this year, the two are so closely connected it is impossible to discuss one without the other: a no-deal Brexit must be budgeted for, so the budget must be Brexit-proofed.

There will still be room for the hopes and dreams of all those vested interests and ordinary individuals who will tune in to watch Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe take to his feet in the Dáil on Tuesday.

Budgets have offered little in the way of excitement in recent years. The tightly knotted purse strings have put paid to any expectations of surprise, outside of an odd cut or bump here and there. The Budget 2020 “event” will be little different, given the aforementioned trouble brewing ahead of the October 31st Brexit deadline with no sign of progress from London.

Last week, the Cabinet was warned by Mr Donohoe, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Simon Coveney about the tight budgetary parameters due to the ongoing potential of a no-deal crisis.

And in the build-up, Mr Donohoe has said any tax cuts – such as those hinted at by Mr Varadkar – would be “minimal”. Even pensioners have been warned they will not receive any increase in weekly payments.

Wednesday

Indicators: US wholesale inventories (Aug).

Meetings: ECB non-monetary policy meeting; National Business Conference on Climate Change (Tullamore Court Hotel, Co Offaly); Dublin Chamber budget business briefing (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street, Dublin).

Thursday

Results: Givaudan, Südzucker, Delta Airlines.

Indicators: Irish consumer price index (Sep), residential property price index (Aug); UK balance of trade (Aug), GDP (Aug), manufacturing production (Aug), construction output (Aug), industrial and manufacturing production (Aug); German imports and exports (Aug); US inflation (Sep).

Meetings: US-China trade talks; Ecofin meeting; Dublin Chamber annual dinner with address by Qantas Airways chief executive Alan Joyce (Convention Centre Dublin); Institute of International and European Affairs event Unlocking Potential for Rural Economies (K Town Bar, Monearmore, Killarney, Co Kerry).

Last month, large headlines heralded the first drop in residential property prices in Dublin for seven years. Could this be the beginning of a pattern many potential buyers have been hoping for? On Thursday, the latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) price index will confirm whether this was a mere anomaly or the start of something of far more significance.

Like the first drops of rain in a drought, figures for the year to July showed the capital dipped by 0.2 per cent. More tellingly, prices slipped by a staggering 6.3 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, an area considered something of a weathervane for the rest of the State.

The reversal marked the first time prices in Dublin fell on an annual basis since October 2012, even if nationally prices rose by 2.3 per cent in the same period.

Shortly afterwards, a report by MyHome.ie found a significant slowdown in both the number of homes changing hands in the capital and the value of transactions.

Irish stockbroker Davy downgraded its housing forecasts amid the slowdown in price growth.

“Although we expect article 50 to be extended, providing relief to the housing market in Q4, Brexit uncertainty could well prove to be a drag on sentiment through 2020,” it said.

Friday

Results: Weatherford International.

Indicators: German inflation (Sep); US export and import prices (Sep).

Meetings: Ibec Preparing for a No-Deal Brexit event (Ibec, Lower Baggot Street, Dublin 2); ESRI Post-Budget Analysis event (ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2).

The Irish Times Logo
Commenting on The Irish Times has changed. To comment you must now be an Irish Times subscriber.
SUBSCRIBE
GO BACK
Error Image
The account details entered are not currently associated with an Irish Times subscription. Please subscribe to sign in to comment.
Comment Sign In

Forgot password?
The Irish Times Logo
Thank you
You should receive instructions for resetting your password. When you have reset your password, you can Sign In.
The Irish Times Logo
Please choose a screen name. This name will appear beside any comments you post. Your screen name should follow the standards set out in our community standards.
Screen Name Selection

Hello

Please choose a screen name. This name will appear beside any comments you post. Your screen name should follow the standards set out in our community standards.

The Irish Times Logo
Commenting on The Irish Times has changed. To comment you must now be an Irish Times subscriber.
SUBSCRIBE
Forgot Password
Please enter your email address so we can send you a link to reset your password.

Sign In

Your Comments
We reserve the right to remove any content at any time from this Community, including without limitation if it violates the Community Standards. We ask that you report content that you in good faith believe violates the above rules by clicking the Flag link next to the offending comment or by filling out this form. New comments are only accepted for 3 days from the date of publication.