This Week: A Brexit-proofed Budget 2020
Meetings, indicators and results of interest to business, finance and economic community
Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe: Budget 2020 will be geared around trouble brewing ahead of the October 31st Brexit deadline. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA
Indicators: Irish industrial production (Aug); UK Halifax house price index (Sep); German factory orders (Aug).
Indicators: Irish vehicles licensed for first time (Sep); UK labour productivity (Q2); German industrial production (Aug); US business optimism index (Sep), PPI (Sep), economic optimism (Oct).
Meetings: Budget 2020.
If there is one thing that can compete for attention with Brexit, it is the budget. But this year, the two are so closely connected it is impossible to discuss one without the other: a no-deal Brexit must be budgeted for, so the budget must be Brexit-proofed.
There will still be room for the hopes and dreams of all those vested interests and ordinary individuals who will tune in to watch Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe take to his feet in the Dáil on Tuesday.
Budgets have offered little in the way of excitement in recent years. The tightly knotted purse strings have put paid to any expectations of surprise, outside of an odd cut or bump here and there. The Budget 2020 “event” will be little different, given the aforementioned trouble brewing ahead of the October 31st Brexit deadline with no sign of progress from London.
And in the build-up, Mr Donohoe has said any tax cuts – such as those hinted at by Mr Varadkar – would be “minimal”. Even pensioners have been warned they will not receive any increase in weekly payments.
Indicators: US wholesale inventories (Aug).
Meetings: ECB non-monetary policy meeting; National Business Conference on Climate Change (Tullamore Court Hotel, Co Offaly); Dublin Chamber budget business briefing (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street, Dublin).
Indicators: Irish consumer price index (Sep), residential property price index (Aug); UK balance of trade (Aug), GDP (Aug), manufacturing production (Aug), construction output (Aug), industrial and manufacturing production (Aug); German imports and exports (Aug); US inflation (Sep).
Meetings: US-China trade talks; Ecofin meeting; Dublin Chamber annual dinner with address by Qantas Airways chief executive Alan Joyce (Convention Centre Dublin); Institute of International and European Affairs event Unlocking Potential for Rural Economies (K Town Bar, Monearmore, Killarney, Co Kerry).
Last month, large headlines heralded the first drop in residential property prices in Dublin for seven years. Could this be the beginning of a pattern many potential buyers have been hoping for? On Thursday, the latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) price index will confirm whether this was a mere anomaly or the start of something of far more significance.
Like the first drops of rain in a drought, figures for the year to July showed the capital dipped by 0.2 per cent. More tellingly, prices slipped by a staggering 6.3 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, an area considered something of a weathervane for the rest of the State.
The reversal marked the first time prices in Dublin fell on an annual basis since October 2012, even if nationally prices rose by 2.3 per cent in the same period.
Shortly afterwards, a report by MyHome.ie found a significant slowdown in both the number of homes changing hands in the capital and the value of transactions.
Irish stockbroker Davy downgraded its housing forecasts amid the slowdown in price growth.
“Although we expect article 50 to be extended, providing relief to the housing market in Q4, Brexit uncertainty could well prove to be a drag on sentiment through 2020,” it said.
Results: Weatherford International.
Indicators: German inflation (Sep); US export and import prices (Sep).
Meetings: Ibec Preparing for a No-Deal Brexit event (Ibec, Lower Baggot Street, Dublin 2); ESRI Post-Budget Analysis event (ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2).