Preparing for the future:The notion that bust follows boom may not be so important in the future, writes Haydn Shaughnessy.

The changes coming down the track in the coming decade are going to be more profound than we realise. That is the message from two leading "futurologists", Rohit Talwar and Josephine Green. Green is responsible for strategic foresight at Philips, the Dutch multinational.

It may sound like a mix of astrology and MBA-speak, but the key aim behind "futurology" is to identify potential social, economic and market changes which lie ahead and ensure that companies have some contingency plans in order. In short, it's about helping firms to future-proof their strategies.

Both speakers visited Ireland recently as part of the EU's Futurreg futurology conferences. The message for Ireland is a welcome step beyond the usual warnings about a tough life after the Celtic Tiger. Imagining the future is about more than saying the good times are over.

Green, who is responsible for reinvigorating the design process at one of the world's largest product manufacturers, cites environmental problems, overwork, consumer activism and income disparities as examples of the dysfunctional times we live in. Her message is that corporations will have to reinvent the relationship between the company and the consumer, and products will not be central to that. Future planning has to account for the diminishing role of products. "The idea we can colonise the future with the present and that it is a black hole that we can throw more technology at is wrong."

Philips currently bases its future design efforts on the belief that many simple assumptions governing how we think are now outdated. "Everything that supported the old monetarist system is being shown not to work," says Green.

And there are larger macro-economic issues that need to be addressed, says Rohit Talwar, who has consulted to many of Europe's leading corporate management teams.

"We are entering an era where the monetary school of economic management that's predated today's key changes may not work any longer." Principally he is referring to the tendency for bust to follow boom and how governments can regulate that.

The Futurreg conference was organised to apply "futures" thinking to the public economic development agenda, particularly in the Border, Midland and West (BMW) region.

"When we were looking at the long-term investment needs of the Border, Midland and West region two years ago," explains Kieran Moylan, an organiser of the conference in Sligo last week, "we saw our requirement for a greater share of higher-value activity."

He cites extensive investment in broadband technology and the ability to attract creative people into the area, but also the ability to compete in tourism against areas as far afield as Dubai, which has declared its intention of becoming the largest tourist magnet in the world.

On the macroeconomic level Talwar believes that the rapidly-developing economies of the world, such as China and India, but also including countries like Nigeria and Pakistan, no longer need to fear the old cyclical pattern of economic growth-bust. That has implications for how Irish firms do business, and for how Irish public sector planners go about projecting the future.

"Irish companies should be asking do we go to Korea, Nigeria, Pakistan - where there is less competition and real capacity - and, if so, how to do this? Ireland needs to use virtual worlds and social networks to connect with these areas," he says.

He adds that companies should be putting people in on the ground in these new markets now to get an intuitive understanding of how their cultures work and how they might become tomorrow's core growth markets for Irish exporters.

Changes to the way the economy functions, the age structure of the world's population, rising economies in the east, the development of social media and climate change are all elements of tomorrow's strategic landscape.

So how future-proof is Ireland's strategy of investing in core areas of research and development, ICT and biopharmaceuticals? Talwar describes it as a narrow portfolio which might miss the essence of how an economy will soon have to function.

"The question is can you predict what industries will succeed or do you create an environment that will attract people with new ideas and rely on new businesses that will spring from these?"