Numbers on Live Register show first decline in two years

THE NUMBER of people claiming unemployment benefits fell in October in what was the first decline in two years, according to Live Register figures released yesterday.

When seasonally adjusted, the Live Register of jobseeker’s benefit and assistance claimants fell by 3,000 last month from 425,500 in September to 422,500 in October, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO). In the year to October 2009, there was an unadjusted increase of 161,727 on the register.

The standardised unemployment rate in October stood at 12.5 per cent, compared to 12.6 per cent in September.

According to the CSO, the seasonally adjusted figures include a decrease of 2,300 males and a decrease of 700 females, with an average net weekly drop in October of 600, compared to a weekly increase of 50 in the previous month. During October, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register comprised 37,273 males and 32,087 females.

The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment, as it includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for April to June 2009, is 259,500 people unemployed.

The Irish Small and Medium Enterprises Association (Isme) said the Live Register figures “masked the true extent” of the unemployment problem, claiming the redundancy figures provided a truer reflection of the crisis.

Isme’s chief executive Mark Fielding said: “Increased emigration, increased numbers on Fás schemes and younger individuals extending their studies is the cause of the reduction and not some miraculous improvement in the labour market.”

Business group Ibec said it was too early to say the economy had turned a corner. Chief economist David Croughan said: “The Live Register numbers . . . must be seen in the context of other indicators showing continuing job losses.” He called on the Government to put in place a stimulus package to retain employment and stimulate job creation.

Labour’s spokesman on enterprise, trade and employment, Willie Penrose, claimed the “pressure valve” of emigration had led to the reduction. Mr Penrose said the reduction may prove to be temporary given the traditional pattern of significant increases in numbers out of work during the winter months.

Brian Devine of NCB Stockbrokers said the figures lend evidence to the belief the economy will return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2009.