House prices, Killarney economic conference and Brexit fallout

For your diary: Results, indicators and meetings for the business week ahead

DUP leader Arlene Foster: she  is one of the expert speakers at the Killarney Economic Conference, in partnership with The Irish Times, on Friday and Saturday

DUP leader Arlene Foster: she is one of the expert speakers at the Killarney Economic Conference, in partnership with The Irish Times, on Friday and Saturday

 

Monday

Indicators: euro zone business and consumer confidence (Dec), consumer inflation expectations (Dec), services, economic and industrial sentiment (Dec), retail sales (Nov); UK house price index (Dec); German factory orders (Nov); US economic optimism (Jan).

Tuesday

Indicators: Irish consumer confidence (Dec); euro zone unemployment (Nov); German exports and imports (Nov), industrial production (Nov); US business optimism index (Dec).

Meetings: TV3 spring schedule launch.

Wednesday

Results: Delta Air Lines.

Indicators: Irish industrial production (Nov); UK construction output (Nov), manufacturing and industrial production (Nov); US export and import prices (Dec).

Meetings: Pendulum Summit (Convention Centre Dublin); GDPR (general data protection regulation) for small firms Business Bytes seminar (Small Firms Association, Ibec, Lower Baggot Street, Dublin).

Thursday

Results: Südzucker, Bank of America.

Indicators: Irish residential property prices (Nov); euro zone industrial production (Nov); US PPI (Dec).

Meetings: European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Is it the familiar expanding sphere of a property bubble? Are we going blindly down the same road? Ireland’s obsessive and tumultuous relationship with real estate will continue in earnest in the new year, ably accompanied by reports and analysis.

On Thursday the Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases its Residential Property Price Index which updates the state of affairs until November 2017. In the year to October, the CSO had reported a national rise in prices of 12.1 per cent, the kind of gains that continue to fuel the debate. That included a rise of 11.6 per cent in Dublin (a higher rate for apartments than houses) and of 12.8 per cent for the country excluding the capital.

In a separate report looking at the fourth quarter of 2017, the property website MyHome.ie said that while the upward movement in house prices is expected to continue in 2018 it will be at a slightly slower pace. This, it said, is due to a tightening of Central Bank lending rules. Its predictions for the year see house prices rise by 8 per cent overall – with double-digit growth outside the capital and gains of 6 per cent to 7 per cent in Dublin.

Davy, which is involved in the production of the MyHome report, said a 1 per cent fall in the final quarter of the year was in keeping with seasonal norms.

“The number of homes listed for sale is down 9 per cent on last year but we still expect growth in housing transactions in 2018 as more homeowners move out of negative equity,” it said.

The watching game continues.

Friday

Results: Blackrock, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co.

Indicators: US inflation (Dec), retail sales (Dec).

Meetings: Killarney Economic Conference (Co Kerry); Dublin Chamber networking lunch (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street).

With Brexit high among the global issues set to dominate the year ahead, the business community will be keen to keep up with rapid developments. On Friday and Saturday the Killarney Economic Conference, in partnership with The Irish Times, will set about picking apart the process and explaining exactly how and why things are developing.

Key among a list of expert speakers is Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who has insisted Northern Ireland will not be separated “constitutionally, politically, economically or regulatory” from the UK, laying a marker for the challenges shaping forthcoming negotiations.

The event will feature panel discussions with Q&A sessions, allowing attendees pose questions on the direction of Brexit negotiations and how companies might best prepare for what is coming.

Michael Russell, Scottish minister for UK negotiations on Scotland’s place in Europe, and Mark Drakeford, the Welsh cabinet secretary for finance, will address other UK political views.

The line-up also includes Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin; Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at Cambridge University; and former chief press officer at No 10 Downing Street Matthew O’Toole.

Panel chair is Mark Hennessy, Irish Times news editor and former London editor.

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