Flying to conclusions on Aer Lingus flotation

So the great privatisation gravy train rolls on. Telecom shares are defying the sceptics and rising rather than falling since the arrival of share certificates and nominee accounts numbers with the 574,000 small investors; ICC Bank is showing its wares to suitors; now Aer Lingus is lining up behind it to strut its stuff on the catwalk.

The current fashion for selling off State assets finds its origins in two separate but related factors. First, the European Union has moved to increase competition in many areas previously seen as the preserve of state monopolies - telecommunications, electricity, air transport. This has opened the way for competition from leaner rivals who have not suffered the under-investment which, for years, crippled their public sector peers. Second, in the Republic's case, its growing affluence has meant its share of the EU pot of handouts is being reduced. To compensate, the Government has to find money elsewhere. Certainly, the buoyant economy is helping, but the scale of investment required by outfits like Aer Lingus, if it is to compete effectively even as part of a major consortium, would put an intolerable strain on the Exchequer's resources.

The answer: privatise. Telecom's success has only encouraged the trend, a somewhat false indicator given that it was priced in a way to provide the nearest thing in equities to a guarantee of success.

Both the Government and investors would want to be wary of extrapolating from that success when calculating the upside in any flotation of Aer Lingus.