Tough lockdown measures keep unemployment rate at 24%

The State’s Covid-adjusted unemployment rate remained at a near record high of 24.2 per cent in March as much of the economy remained in lockdown.

The headline rate was marginally down on the 24.8 per cent rate recorded in February.

The high level of joblessness reflects the impact of Level 5 restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus, which have kept all non-essential retail and most of the hospitality sector and most of the construction sector closed since Christmas.

The latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), which include those in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP), indicate that as many as 571,111 people may have been out of work in March.

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This, however, does not include workers having their wages subsidised through the Government’s Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS).

The figures point to a youth unemployment rate of over 59.2 per cent. The traditional unemployment rate, which does not take into account those in receipt of PUP, was unchanged from the previous month at 5.8 per cent, up from 5 per cent 12 months ago.

In its latest analysis, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) warned that unemployment is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2023 “at the earliest”.

It expects unemployment to peak at 25 per cent in the first quarter of this year, before falling to just over 10 per cent by the end of the year, and to 7 per cent next year.

‘Lockdown fatigue’

"Although lockdown fatigue has well and truly set in for many, a reopening is now on the horizon which provides some hope. The small drop in the Covid adjusted rate of unemployment is also a good sign that even under the most severe lockdowns, the rate is going down and some people are finding work," said Jack Kennedy, economist with recruitment website Indeed.

He said the new rural development plan launched by Government shows that remote work and decentralisation will become a bigger part of working life in the future.

“One development that will be interesting to watch is whether customer facing jobs in Dublin permanently disappear or move somewhere else,” he said.

" Remote work is greater and more persistent in larger cities due to a larger amount of professional services jobs, a trend we see across Europe. This, coupled with the reallocation of work away from city centres, could suggest a difficult adjustment period for some urban workers," he said.