Ireland’s climate progress is too slow and it must front-load its investment in energy transition to avoid escalating climate and economic costs, a study by UCC energy analysts warns.
The current target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 is too late, the study by the Energy Policy and Modelling Group (EPMG) concludes. Deep emissions cuts must occur sooner than currently planned for Ireland to contribute effectively to limiting global warming, the study published in npj Climate Action adds.
It indicates meeting ambitious carbon budgets would cost between €600 million and €1.4 billion annually between 2024 and 2050, depending on level of ambition. If the country pursues the most ambitious climate budget, it would only cost “the equivalent of five cups of coffee a month for every person in Ireland” – less than 0.33 per cent of gross national income annually to 2050.
While delays in cutting greenhouse gas emissions may reduce short-term pressures in the economy, “failing to accelerate climate action risks greater long-term costs, stranded assets, and dependence on unproven carbon removal technologies after 2030,” it says.
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“Failure to act this decade would necessitate costly and possibly unfeasible measures later, including large-scale carbon removal with complex trade-offs,” the study says. Key measures to be pursued this decade include electrifying transport, heating and industry, alongside expanding renewable power generation.
“The investment in clean energy is significant and is mainly required this decade, but it will nearly entirely pay for itself through long-term savings on fossil fuel imports, while also leading to cleaner air and a more secure energy system that is resilient to global energy crises,” the report adds.
In contrast, ongoing reliance on fossil fuels in current policy scenarios increases long-term financial burdens and continues to contribute to worsening climate impacts. The research coincides with the start of the UN climate talks – COP29 – in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Reducing wasteful energy use complements technological solutions and can bring wider benefits, it says. “Lower energy demand makes more ambitious carbon budget scenarios more feasible and less reliant on speculative and costly carbon removal technologies. This can be achieved through compact urban development, shifting to pubic and active transport modes, and supporting less energy-intensive economic activities.”
On fossil fuels, the EPMG says they should be largely eliminated from power by the early 2030s and from buildings and transport by 2040.
“Think of the carbon budget like a strict smoking limit for someone with serious health risks. Overshooting our carbon limit targets early means extreme measures later. Steady reductions now are key to staying within safe limits,” said lead author Dr Vahid Aryanpu
Co-author Prof Hannah Daly added: “Ireland’s climate progress is too slow, and continued delays will make meeting EU and global commitments more costly and less feasible. Technologies for a clean energy system are mature and affordable – urgency is what’s missing.”
This study informed Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council advice to the Government and feeds into deliberations on upcoming carbon budgets for the 2030s, through the council’s Carbon Budgets Working Group, of which Prof Daly is a member.
Using the optimisation model TIMES-Ireland, the researchers evaluated cost-effective energy pathways that reduce emissions while meeting energy demand across sectors. The model is open-source and peer reviewed – its development was funded by the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications. The EPMG, part of MaREI energy institute and is attached to the Environmental Research Institute in UCC, is at the forefront of research supporting Ireland’s sustainable energy transition.
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