Bertie's bowl is unlikely ever to get off the ground without massive Government aid

Opinion is mixed about whether Bertie Ahern's National Stadium is viable ora potential white elephant but one thing seems certain - any project willneed public money, writes Colm Keena

To get to Abbotstown from central Dublin, you drive out the Navan Road, along the Blanchardstown bypass and right onto Snugborough Road. One day, if Bertie Ahern's vision is turned into metal, concrete and soil, there will be a modern football stadium on your right, behind the two National Aquatic and Leisure Centre buildings. At the moment, however, all you can see behind the two buildings, both of which seem to be near completion, are fields, the trees that line them and a few grazing cows.

The two buildings nearing completion are on the near edge of 500 acres owned by the State, land which is currently used by the Department of Agriculture and a number of other State bodies. At the height of the economic boom, Mr Ahern dreamt of covering this land with a range of sports facilities, parkland and even a lake. Now the dream has been changed to the construction of a football stadium by private interests. The other elements of the development have been dropped.

Last week, following the Government's decision not to finance the construction of the stadium with public money, an advertisement was placed in the national newspapers. "The Government has decided to explore the viability of providing a National Stadium with private-sector funding and the market is now being canvassed for private-sector interest in involvement in this project."

With an eye on the June 2008 European Football Championship finals, the advertisement said the grounds, with a minimum capacity of 65,000, would have to be ready for use by the previous summer. "The Government intends to make land available at Abbotstown, Dublin 15, where there is a site of 500 acres in the ownership of the State Parties interested in putting forward expressions of interest in the development of the Abbotstown site, to include a national stadium on the basis sought, are invited to make a documentary submission to the Dept of Arts, Sports and Tourism."

The proposals are to be received by October 18th and will be used to assist the Government in assessing what potential exists to progress the project. If it decides the potential does exist, then a formal tendering process will be initiated.

An aspect of the advertisement which immediately attracted attention was the reference to 500 acres and to the development of "the Abbotstown site". The Government is encouraging private backers to get involved by holding out the prospect of cheap land.

A number of property developers and sports stadium professionals gave their view on the project to The Irish Times. Their views ranged from enthusiasm for the project, to cautious interest, to dismissal. However, it is clear that some of the biggest international names involved in these type of developments are studying the Irish proposal and considering making a submission. What is also clear is that although the State has now withdrawn from building the stadium itself, developers don't see the construction of a stadium being a runner without substantial support from the State.

One Irish professional experienced in the area of stadium construction did a five-minute "feasibility study" over the telephone for The Irish Times. He presumed the stadium had 65,000 seats and was host to four soccer and four rugby internationals per year, with tickets selling at €40 each. Each game would bring in €2.6 million, €1 million of which would go in costs. That would make for, approximately, €12 million per year profits if each game was sold out.

A stadium might cost €2,000 per seat to build, making a 65,000- seat stadium cost €130 million. That price would not include necessary infrastructure such as drains, parking facilities, etc. A further, expensive element would be the construction of ancillary bars and restaurants. At 4.6 per cent interest a loan of €200 million - a €200 million stadium would be a cheap one - would require €9.2 million in interest payments in the first year. Paying off the capital over 25 years would require €8 million per annum, making for a total of €17.2 million in the first year at least, a significant amount more than the expected revenue from seat sales.

It is a very rough calculation but it illustrates a key problem with the stadium. Most stadiums in the world have a resident home team which plays two matches or more per month per season. There is no domestic, non-GAA team which could draw a regular crowd to Abbotstown.

"The people who are interested will pitch their bid at a level where the Government will have to put in half or two-thirds of the money in whatever guise," predicted the source.

Land is the key. Mr John O'Donoghue, Minister for Arts, Sports and Tourism, has said there is no question of 500 acres being given to developers to allow them "make a killing" and that he will keep the interests of the taxpayers in mind when reviewing submissions. Nevertheless, a deal involving land is seen by many as a necessary part of any stadium deal.

One source based in London and involved in creating a consortium which will submit a proposal for the stadium, said the construction costs will have to be in part paid for by an associated commercial development.

Hotels, a business park or retail outlets are seen as possible contenders. The 500-acre site is currently zoned for amenity and so any such development will require re-zoning. Zoning the land residential would be controversial.

The source says his group is likely to end up involving an Irish property development company and a number of private individuals, some of whom are Irish, as well as an architects firm, bankers, a marketing company and a stadium operating company. He says it is impossible to do the sums on the project until the nature of the deals which can be negotiated with the FAI and the IRFU are known.

Property developer Mr Noel Smyth, the only Irish property developer to as yet express interest publicly in the proposal, has said the stadium deal should involve capital tax allowances rather than "free land". He was involved in a group which looked at a stadium for the FAI a number of years ago and has in mind a complex which would complement income from sporting fixtures with income from other events, such as major exhibitions, conferences and concerts. He points to the Odyssey complex in Belfast as an example of the range of events which can be brought to one venue.

"The project has a lot going for it. It would make money because you would generate demand for it on a number of fronts. I'll be making a submission to the Government and I would be disappointed if it didn't go further than that." He estimated it would take about two and half years from March 2003 to get a stadium finished, well within the Government's deadline.

Another Irish developer, who did not wish to be named, made the following comment: "The crucial question is risk. Who takes the hit if it doesn't work? You can spend a lot of time on a project like this and it mightn't work."

Yet another Irish developer said: "Obviously it can be done but I would say the cost will be at least €250 million and that can't be done unless land is given in exchange. Anything else is fantasy stuff. No way would a stadium be financially viable on its own."

This developer thought the ongoing controversy over the stadium was a pity. He believed a national stadium was required and the benefits it would bring would be significant, if difficult to measure. Spread over 20 years, he said, the cost involved was "peanuts".

"Interest rates are low. Say it cost €200 million or €300 million. You could have the Government pay €20 million or €30 million per annum for the period, and then get the building at the end."

He said many Irish developers would be wary about getting involved in what could turn out to be "a merry go around. You could spend a lot of money and time on something like this. Look at the conference hall in the docks and all the years that have been spent on that." Time wasted on projects that go nowhere is time which could have been used on money making projects, he added.

"There's a view out there that this is just the Government kicking the ball up in the air for a few years to see if the economy picks up again. It's just a pity it wasn't built during the boom years."

The GAA has spent €200 million on the development of Croke Park and makes it pay through ticket revenue and the renting-out of the new social areas which have been built beneath the stands. The social facilities at the stadium, one of the biggest in Europe, were recently used by Debenhams for a number of months, for an employee interview and training programme. The facilities are even being advertised for wedding receptions.

"The white elephant looking over your shoulder is what everyone will be thinking of," says an Irish source who has knowledge of recent international experience in the construction of stadiums. He lists off a number of stadiums which have cost hundreds of millions of euros and are now lying idle. "Sydney stadium is a big white elephant. Melbourne as well." He predicts there will be very expensive stadiums sitting idle in Japan and South Korea in the coming years. The Stade de France in Paris was saved from white elephant status recently when the soccer team Paris St Germain was signed up to use the grounds.

The general rule in "Napoleonic Europe" is for State or local authority money to be invested in stadiums, according to the source. In the US, stadiums can be built and run on private money because local baseball and NFL teams will fill the grounds on a very frequent basis for fixtures which last longer than a rugby or soccer match and, therefore, allow for much greater sales of food and beverages.

With the GAA needing to fill Croke Park as much as it can, frequent sporting fixtures drawing large crowds do not seem to be on the cards for Abbotstown. The only way a stadium will be built is with a large amount of Government aid, in whatever guise. Meanwhile, the UEFA officials who visited Dublin to see its facilities this week took back with them their memories of Abbotstown: fields, some well-fed cattle, and the Dunsink dump in the distance.