All the major business events coming up this week
For Your Diary: Analysts expecting earnings growth of 14% when Ryanair reports on Tuesday
Ryanair has been continuing its aggressive expansion into Germany and Italy, and its capital expenditure is currently adding about one aircraft per week
Indicators: Irish retail sales (April); euro zone loan growth (April); UK house prices (May)
Results: Ryanair Holdings, Aryzta
Indicators: Irish unemployment (May); euro zone business confidence, services sentiment, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment (May)
Meetings: Irish Times Economic Summit 2017 (Shelbourne Hotel, Dublins); Applegreen agm (Herbert Park Hotel, Dublin); IRES REIT agm (Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin); Annual BJAI Corporate Challenge (Clayton Hotel, Dublin); German inflation (May); US personal income and spending (April), home prices (March), consumer confidence (May)
Ryanair expected to post growth
With Ryanair due to report full-year earnings on Tuesday, analysts are expecting earnings growth of about 14 per cent driven by lower fuel costs and a share buyback programme.
To meet management’s guidance of €1.3 billion to €1.35 billion it needs to generate €60 million to €70 million in the seasonally slow Q4 period as the bulk of profits are now in the bag, analysts say.
However, according to Merrion Capital, with shares currently trading up 17 per cent year to date (and 26 per cent over the last year) the day’s focus will remain sharply on what the airline can do in 2018, with the consensus forecast expecting 12 per cent growth despite recent trends of a fall in profits year over year. H1 2018 guidance will be key.
The no-frills carrier has been continuing its aggressive expansion into Germany and Italy (Alitalia is about to begin bankruptcy proceedings) and its capital expenditure is currently adding about one aircraft per week.
Darren McKinley, senior equity analyst at Merrion Capital, says the focus here is to take market share rather than profits.
Brexit, sterling and unforeseen events such as terrorism and labour strikes will also appear as familiar characters in next year’s story.
“I don’t have any strong conviction on where Ryanair goes from current levels over the next 12 months,” said McKinley. “The share price has done very well despite their most recent quarterly results reporting a decline in earnings. If anything I see some downside in the short term.”
Applegreen awaits approval
Pending regulatory approval for the acquisition of Topaz’s wholesale fuels business in Dublin is likely to be raised at what should be an otherwise straightforward Applegreen agm on Tuesday.
The Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) has ordered Topaz to sell Esso Ireland’s 50 per cent share in a Dublin Port fuel terminal as a condition of allowing it to buy its rival for €75 million in late 2015.
Applegreen has already been confirmed as the successful bidder but is now awaiting CCPC approval.
Overall the agm is set to be plain sailing for a company that has overseen a successful expansion phase leading to its first dividend since 2015 earlier this year.
The company grew its base of 64 sites at the end of 2009 to 243 sites today. It added 28 company-owned locations and 15 dealer sites during 2016, and saw revenue grow by 9 per cent to €1.18 billion last year. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose to €32 million from €28.9 million.
Chief executive Bob Etchingham has said food and store sales were particularly strong in the Republic of Ireland during the last financial year. Fuel margins, however, were impacted by the rising oil price.
Results: Analog Devices, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Spar
Indicators: euro zone inflation (May), unemployment (April); UK consumer confidence (May), consumer credit and mortgage lending (April); German import prices and retail sales (April), unemployment (May)
Meetings: National Sales and Marketing Summit (RDS, Dublin); TechConnect Live – free technology event (RDS); Enterprise Excellence Ireland event on lean management systems (Croke Park)
Indicators: Irish manufacturing PMI (May); euro zone manufacturing PMI (May); UK manufacturing PMI (May); German manufacturing PMI (May); US manufacturing PMI (May), jobless claims (May)
Indicators: Irish industrial production (April); euro zone PPI (April); UK construction PMI (May); US exports and imports (April), unemployment (May)
Meetings: Irish Small and Medium Enterprise Association (ISME) annual lunch (Croke Park)