All eyes on loan growth as Bank of Ireland reports full-year results

This Week: Big week for banks as SME lending stays weak amid Brexit caution

Bank of Ireland  forecasts profit after tax of €765 million, an 11 per cent increase on 2017. Photograph: Frantzesco Kangaris/Bloomberg

Bank of Ireland forecasts profit after tax of €765 million, an 11 per cent increase on 2017. Photograph: Frantzesco Kangaris/Bloomberg

 

Monday

Results: Bank of Ireland, Hammerson.

Indicators: UK mortgage approvals (Jan).

It is a big week for Irish lenders, with Bank of Ireland, AIB and Permanent TSB all reporting full-year results.

Looking ahead to the results, Davy said that, in the case of Bank of Ireland (which reports on Monday), all eyes will be firmly on loan growth and progress on transformation in several key areas.

It forecasts profit after tax of €765 million, an 11 per cent increase on 2017. However, in a cautionary note, analysts say the bank’s near-term outlook will be scrutinised against the uncertain Brexit backdrop and competition posed by UK retail banking.

As for AIB (which reports on Friday), Davy expects modest net loan book growth of about 1 per cent for the year, helped by both mortgages and corporate lending.

“With SME lending remaining weak, and a continued cautious UK stance, the outlook for both segments is key to driving core earnings growth,” it said.

Meanwhile, following reports in The Irish Times regarding pay rises in both pillar banks, Goodbody said that, in the case of Bank of Ireland, its estimates had already incorporated a 2.75 per cent increment. “So the slightly higher settlement will add [about] €9 million to our FY21F cost base, or reduce net income by 1 per cent, unless recouped elsewhere in the cost base,” it said.

Permanent TSB reports its results on Wednesday.

Tuesday

Results: Dalata Hotel Group, Green Reit, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Mylan, Persimmon, Travis Perkins, Home Depot.

Indicators: Irish overseas travel (Jan); German consumer confidence (Mar); US house price index (Dec), consumer confidence (Feb).

Meetings: Northern Ireland Translink Supplier Engagement Event on cross-border transport (Titanic Belfast, Queens Road, Belfast); Catex 2019 food service event (RDS, Dublin 4).

Things are looking up for hoteliers and, more specifically, in the operations of Dalata, Ireland’s largest operator, which reports full-year results on Tuesday.

Positive sentiment around the company is broadly reflected in recent announcements. Last month it said it had agreed terms to lease a new 200-bedroom, four-star hotel as part of the Spencer Place development on Dublin’s docklands. This will expand Dalata’s foothold in the docklands area to four hotels.

More recently, Northern Irish developer McAleer & Rushe received planning for two UK hotels that will be operated by the company when built.

Dalata currently boasts more than 8,000 rooms in 29 owned Irish hotels, 10 leased properties and three management contracts. It operates both the Clayton and Maldron brands.

Recent activity in the sector is also a boost ahead of results. Reports show revenue per available room (RevPAR) grew by 0.9 per cent in January, despite the 4.5 percentage point rise in VAT. Davy has predicted RevPAR growth for Dalata of 1 per cent for the year as a whole given the VAT headwind and increasing supply.

Wednesday

Results: Permanent TSB, FBD Holdings, Perrigo, Horizon Pharma, Kuehne + Nagel, Taylor Wimpey, Wienerberger, Amadeus IT Group, Buzzi Unicem, Fitbit.

Indicators: Irish road freight transport survey (Q3, 2018); Euro zone loan growth and money supply (Jan), industrial, economic and services sentiment (Feb), business and consumer confidence (Feb), consumer inflation expectations (Feb); US factory orders (Dec).

Meetings: Talent Summit HR & Leadership Conference (Convention Centre Dublin); Cork Chamber: Enterprise Europe Network Seminar for international business (River Lee Hotel, Western Rd, Cork).

Thursday

Results: CRH, Grafton Group, Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Dell Technologies, IAG, Bovis Homes, Howden Joinery, Mondi, Total Produce, Barnes & Noble, Crocs, Gap, Sotheby’s.

Indicators: Irish retail sales (Jan); UK consumer confidence (Feb), housing prices (Feb); German inflation (Feb); US GDP (Q4).

Meetings: How Should the EU Spend Your Money economist debate (Institute for International and European Affairs, North Great George’s Street, Dublin 1); Irish Small and Medium Enterprise (ISME) association road show on business networking (Clayton Silver Springs Hotel, Cork).

Friday

Results: AIB Group, William Hill, Foot Locker.

Indicators: Irish manufacturing PMI (Feb); Euro zone manufacturing PMI (Feb), inflation (Feb), unemployment (Jan); UK consumer credit (Jan), net lending to individuals (Jan), mortgage lending and approvals (Jan), manufacturing PMI (Jan); German import prices (Jan), unemployment (Feb), manufacturing PMI (Feb); US PCE price index (Dec, Jan), manufacturing PMI (Feb), vehicle sales (Feb).

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