Consumers in Northern Ireland are facing a “very difficult” winter with a “tsunami” of high energy prices coming if the Middle East crisis is not resolved within weeks, MPs have been warned.
David Blevings, executive director of the Northern Ireland Oil Federation, told the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee on Wednesday that the recent rise in oil prices following the US-Israeli attack on Iran had a “devastating effect” on the industry and created a “fear factor” for consumers.
“If the strait [of Hormuz] remains closed, I do worry about the future for this winter,” he said.
“If it [the war] is resolved quickly, in the next couple of weeks we could see a return to relative normality by quarter four of 2026, but if we have a prolonged infraction in Iran this winter in particular looks very, very difficult.”
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Pat Austin, director of National Energy Action NI and chair of the Fuel Poverty Coalition NI, said she expected the situation to “get significantly worse ... this crisis has literally overnight put people on their knees.
“We just see this as a tsunami coming down the line where people probably have held off to date but are soon going to need that fill of oil and are going to be in real difficulties.”
Other speakers provided similar warnings to MPs about the impact of the war on Northern Ireland’s energy costs and called for urgent, meaningful intervention to support consumers and businesses.
Low-income households in Northern Ireland are to receive a £100 voucher to help offset the increased cost of home heating oil as part of a £36 million scheme announced last week and funded jointly by the UK and Stormont governments.
The cost of home heating oil has risen significantly, with 900 litres on Wednesday costing £941.78 on average, up from £536.72 before the war began, according to the Consumer Council for Northern Ireland’s price checker.
The average price of petrol and diesel have also risen from 124.8p and 132.6p per litre respectively, to 154p and 188.1p, according to the council.
In terms of support, Blevings said, “the UK stands out like a sore thumb”.
“We’ve already seen the Republic [of Ireland] take out 30 cent per litre [from the cost of fuel], including VAT mind you ... you can now fill up a tanker in the Republic and bring it up North and sell it here and make money, which to me, just does not make sense.
“We need to see some action from government to reduce the excise duty on both petrol and diesel to help consumers,” he said.
He said the £100 voucher scheme for home heating oil was “miserly” and “isn’t going to cut it”. If the situation worsened, people on lower level incomes “will not be able to fill their tank” by winter.
Asked by the Alliance MP, Sorcha Eastwood, about the “lack of understanding around the urgency of this crisis from UKG [the UK government] in terms of Northern Ireland”, Blevings said he did not think it had understood “the situation that consumers find themselves [in] over here at all”.
Austin said fuel poverty in Northern Ireland was already at around 40 per cent and “this recent intervention, which is looking at £100 ... is woefully inadequate”.
“It really will not touch the sides of the tank,” she said.
William Irvine, president of the Ulster Farmers’ Union, said the agri-food sector was facing “an immediate and externally-driven cost shock due to this Iranian war”. He called for “intervention now to protect our businesses and ultimately protect consumers”.
Declan Pang, director of policy and public affairs at the Road Haulage Association, said some companies had seen fuel costs for “an average mileage HGV increase by about £350 per week” and this was a “significant, unsustainable cost”.
“It is critically important that they [the government] bring in support,” he said.
