Despite the publication of the plan to end the Gaza war, significant obstacles remain and a comprehensive ceasefire is far from a done deal.
US president Donald Trump has the ability to exert significant pressure on Israel and it was always the case that prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu would find it difficult to say no if Trump decided the time had come to end the almost two-year war.
The same is not true for Hamas. The chief mediators, Qatar and Egypt, cannot exert similar leverage on Hamas. Ultimately, Hamas has to decide if it wants to accept the 21-point plan. Hamas leaders say they have still not been presented with the final plan and therefore it is premature to comment.
Even if the Hamas leadership in exile ultimately accepts the peace agreement, it is Hamas in Gaza, holding the hostages, that will have the final say. The two branches of the Hamas leadership have not always been on the same page in the past when important decisions had to be taken. Even if Hamas eventually agrees to a ceasefire, such a decision would not be binding on the other militant groups that operate in Gaza, the largest of which is the Islamic Jihad, which on occasion in the past has fired rockets at Israel while Hamas was observing a truce.
READ MORE
Concerning the concessions that will be required of Hamas, it seems the biggest obstacle remains the call for Hamas to disarm – a call the militant group has resisted unequivocally, while it seems more willing to give up a role in Gaza’s postwar governance. Hamas will also require a clear timetable for an Israeli military withdrawal and international guarantees that Israel will not renew hostilities once the hostages are released.
Israeli concessions include the release of almost 200 Palestinian prisoners serving life terms after being convicted of murdering Israelis and a role for the Palestinian Authority in governing Gaza (if they carry out reforms), despite Netanyahu’s public declarations that he would not agree to this. However, Netanyahu will always be able to argue that this was the only way to free the hostages.
Netanyahu is facing fierce opposition to a deal from the two far-right parties in his coalition and a ceasefire could well be the catalyst for early elections in Israel.
However, he is guaranteed a majority in the Knesset parliament and certainly among the public. A public opinion survey released on Monday ahead of the two-year anniversary of the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack, showed that 66 per cent of Israelis believe the time has come to end the war, with 65 per cent prioritising the release of the hostages over toppling Hamas.
