Senior American officials, headed by US secretary of state Antony Blinken and CIA director William Burns, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the next few days as Washington launches a concerted diplomatic push to end the Gaza war while trying to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Iran and Hizbullah.
The US and the mediators, Qatar and Egypt, will exert maximum pressure on both sides to clinch a deal when talks resume on Thursday, hoping that a breakthrough will also decrease tensions on the northern front.
US president Joe Biden said “it’s still possible” to get a deal for a Gaza ceasefire that would release the more than 100 hostages who have been in captivity for more than 300 days.
“The plan I put together is still viable,” he said in an interview with CBS, recorded a few days ago. “And I’m working literally every single day to see to it that it doesn’t escalate into a regional war. But it easily can.”
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The mediators, frustrated by foot dragging from both prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, presumed to be in hiding in Gaza tunnels, may also present bridging proposals with a “take it or leave it” ultimatum to the warring parties.
Significant differences remain on issues such as the Israeli military presence in Gaza, preventing militants from returning to northern Gaza and the identity of Palestinian security prisoners Israel will release under the deal. However, Egyptian and Qatari mediators have conveyed to Israeli officials that Hamas is now ready for a deal.
As the death toll in Gaza, after 10 months of fighting, approached 40,000, Israel on Sunday ordered residents to move out of parts of the southern city of Khan Younis previously designated as humanitarian safe zones, claiming militants had moved into the area.
Israel released the names of 19 militants it claims were killed in Saturday’s strike on a former school building in Gaza city’s Tufah neighbourhood, now used to shelter war refugees. Gaza officials claimed almost 100 people were killed in the attack, including women and children.
The Israeli military said the attack had been carried out with precision munitions on a mosque in the school compound used as a militant command centre and could not have caused the number of casualties reported by Hamas.
Israel expects the retaliation by Iran and Hizbullah for the recent assassinations of two leading militants in Beirut and Tehran will happen in the coming days. The assessment is that their response will be co-ordinated but not necessarily synchronised.
Hizbullah will likely respond to the killing of its senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, whereas Iran will respond separately for the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iranian proxies – the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq – may also be mobilised to challenge Israel’s defence systems.
Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday warned Hizbullah and Iran that retaliation for the assassinations in Beirut and Tehran would be met with an Israeli response. “Anyone who hurts us in a way they haven’t operated before is expected to be hurt by us in a way we haven’t operated before, and the IDF has significant abilities.”
“I hope they do their maths in the best way possible, and we don’t get to a point where they make us do things that would bring significant harm and raise the chance of a war breaking out on other fronts. Those are things we don’t want, but we have to be prepared for them, and they might happen.”
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