Israel has been waiting more than a week for Iran and Hizbullah to retaliate following the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hizbullah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Defence minister Yoav Gallant spoke on Thursday of the “psychological attempt by the enemy to sow fear and instil terror”, adding that “we are working to give the public sufficient warning when required [of an attack], and until then allow them to continue a normal lifestyle.”
Israeli officials believe that neither Hizbullah nor Iran have made a final decision about their retaliation and are still deliberating on its scope, how it will be carried out and its targets. There has also been speculation that if accurate, real-time intelligence is received of an impending attack, Israel may opt for a pre-emptive strike.
According to various US media reports, following intense international pressure Tehran seems to have recalibrated and Washington no longer expects an imminent attack on Israel from the Islamic republic.
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However, Hizbullah is another story. There is an increasing likelihood that it will strike Israel in the coming days, CNN reported, citing two intelligence sources.
The risk of the region plunging into an all-out war depends on the intensity and success of the Hizbullah/Iranian retaliation and, accordingly, the Israeli response. In the previous flare-up in April, the successful interception of almost all of the 300 projectiles launched from Iran allowed Israel to suffice with a relatively restrained response. As a result, regional tensions dissipated quickly.
Israel has made it clear that significant civilian causalities will trigger a disproportionate response. US and Israeli officials believe a Hizbullah attack will focus on military sites, but civilian casualties remain a possibility. Hizbullah is most likely to target military installations in northern Israel but Lebanese journalists close to the militant group reported in recent days that the organisation may also try to hit defence facilities in the centre of the country.
To prevent a “catastrophic war” in the Middle East, US president Joe Biden dispatched aircraft carriers, destroyers and fighter jets to the region, saying Washington would help defend Israel as it did in April. According to a US official, about a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets and an E-2D Hawkeye surveillance aircraft from the USS Theodore Roosevelt flew from the Gulf of Oman to a military base in the Middle East earlier this week.
Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly implored supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid attacking Israel, warning that an Israeli response could severely disrupt the country’s infrastructure.
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