US president Joe Biden did not restore warm relations with Riyadh or secure Arab support for his regional initiatives during last weekend’s Gulf summit in Saudi Arabia.
The connection between Biden and Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, crown prince Mohammed bin Salman remains cool. When Biden berated bin Salman for the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the testy crown prince retorted by citing as human rights violations the fatal Israeli shooting of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in May and US torture of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison in 2003-2004.
This exchange soured the atmosphere between the Saudis and Biden. He was deemed a “much diminished president” by former Saudi intelligence chief prince Turki bin Faisal while his proposals elicited a series of negatives.
Saudi foreign minister prince Faisal bin Farhan said he was not aware of “discussions on defence co-operation between Gulf Co-operation Council members and Israel”. He stated there were no discussions on oil – which will be raised during the Opec-plus Russia meeting in August- or on Saudi normalisation of relations with Israel.
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The Saudi decision to open its air space to all carriers, including Israeli aircraft, does not amount to normalisation and is “not in any way a precursor to any further steps”, the foreign minister added.
His words contradicted Biden, who said this is a “big deal, not only symbolically but substantively” and the “first step” toward advancing Saudi relations with Israel; Riyadh, however, insists Palestinian statehood must come first. A 2020 survey by the Washington-based Arab Centre showed that 88 per cent of Arabs reject normalisation.
Furthermore, as custodians of Islam’s two holiest shrines in Mecca and Medina, the Saudis would lose moral legitimacy with the global Muslim community if they normalised with Israel at this time.
The foreign minster described Iraqi-brokered Saudi talks with Iran as “positive” and argued that “diplomatic solutions are the preferable and only way to deal with Iran”, implicitly rejecting Biden’s statement in Israel that military action could be used to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Biden said the US could not “walk away” from the Middle East as this would leave a vacuum for China and Russia to exploit. There is no vacuum. Arab governments often at odds with each other have achieved a level of unity and are cultivating connections with China and Russia.
Saudi and Emirati rulers have smoothed relations with Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, ended the 2017 blockade of Qatar over policy differences, and entered into a ceasefire in the Yemen war. The Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan reopened embassies in Damascus and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad visited the Emirates in March.
Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Egypt and 15 other Arab states have concluded strategic partnerships with China under its Road and Belt initiative which promotes investment, trade, financial integration and political co-operation. Amwaj media reports that China is aiding Saudi Arabia’s domestic ballistic missile programme.
The Emirates has a “strategic partnership” with Russia which co-operates with Saudi Arabia to control the volume of oil exports and pricing. Saudi Arabia buys discounted Russian fuel oil and sells its own production at market prices.
Arab autocrats appear to have turned to Chinese and Russian autocrats as their policies are consistent and long-term while the democratic US and its Western allies regularly change regime via elections and can revoke or alter regional policies adopted by earlier administrations.
The Arabs do not believe Biden can deliver on regional initiatives. His domestic approval rating is 33 per cent, he could be rendered a lame duck if the Democrats lose seats in the November legislative elections, and he could be defeated by a Republican in 2024.