Hungary after Orbán: the daunting work of dismantling a captured state

The country has become beholden to former premier’s oligarchs and Russian interests, experts warn

During his four consecutive terms, Viktor Orban asserted party control of the state, business and civil society through formal institutions and a web of connections dubbed the 'System of National Cooperation'. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
During his four consecutive terms, Viktor Orban asserted party control of the state, business and civil society through formal institutions and a web of connections dubbed the 'System of National Cooperation'. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Viktor Orbán will never return as prime minister in Hungary, according to the man who beat him in elections on Sunday. Péter Magyar said that after Orbán’s five terms in total, he would impose a two-term limit.

“He will also fall under this ceiling, meaning he will not be premier again,” Magyar, leader of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party, said at a marathon press conference on Monday. With a resounding two-thirds supermajority, Magyar now has a mandate to change all laws, including the constitution.

“He has already had 20 years of his 36-year career in politics in the prime minister’s seat,” the premier-elect said of Orbán. “That was an awesome opportunity to turn Hungary into a developed European country, but he failed to take it. That’s for him to ponder.”

Ending Orbán’s premiership is already a monumental achievement. But dismantling the Orbán regime could prove more difficult, say experts and democracy watchdogs.

During his four consecutive terms, Orbán asserted party control of the state, business and civil society through formal institutions and a web of connections dubbed the “System of National Cooperation” – which Magyar has pledged to dismantle.

But Miklós Ligeti, legal director of the corruption watchdog Transparency International in Budapest, which has called Hungary a captured state, warned: “Like Rome, [the Orbán system] wasn’t built in a day, neither will it be dismantled that quickly.”

Hungary’s richest businessman and Orbán’s schoolfriend Lőrinc Mészáros on Tuesday pledged to hold on to the vast corporate network he built, which has earned him accusations of corruption and the moniker “Orbán’s wallet”.

“The Mészáros Group, as one of Hungary’s largest private-sector employers, is committed to remaining a key player,” the company said in a statement. “It is our strategic goal to create value over the long term, regardless of the economic and political environment.”

Orbán has indicated he plans to stay on as Fidesz party leader and pledged to shake up the party following the election defeat. “In the coming weeks we will reorganise ourselves, visit every constituency, convene our volunteers, activists, representatives and candidates,” he said in a video posted on social media on Monday, adding that a national committee meeting will be held on April 28th.

Peter Magyar arrives at a campaign event in Felcsut, Hungary. Photograph: Akos Stiller/The New York Times
Peter Magyar arrives at a campaign event in Felcsut, Hungary. Photograph: Akos Stiller/The New York Times

Magyar on Monday vowed to pursue those who “plundered, looted, betrayed, indebted and ruined” the country during Orbán’s time in office, but promised to respect the independence of law enforcement agencies.

Who is Peter Magyar, the man set to take over from Viktor Orbán in Hungary?Opens in new window ]

The 45-year-old lawyer and former Fidesz member emerged from relative obscurity to build a popular movement, turning a groundswell of resentment against the corruption, economic mismanagement and moral decline of the ruling elite into a landslide victory on Sunday.

In his speech on Sunday night, Magyar said he wanted to begin unpicking the Orbán system, first by removing loyalists from key positions, starting with president Tamás Sulyok.

Sulyok did not react to Magyar’s charge but announced he invited the leaders of all three parties in the new parliament for consultations on Wednesday.

“I call upon the president to ask me to form a government, then immediately leave office with whatever dignity he has left,” Magyar said.

He also called on leaders of the top court, the chief prosecutor, the chair of the constitutional court, the State Audit Office, the media authority and others to resign. “They should leave before we send them. Because we will. This system is over.”

Hungarian president Tamas Sulyok  inspects a military honour guard during a flag-hoisting ceremony in front of the parliament in Budapest, Hungar. Photograph: Attila KIisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images
Hungarian president Tamas Sulyok inspects a military honour guard during a flag-hoisting ceremony in front of the parliament in Budapest, Hungar. Photograph: Attila KIisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images

Ligeti said several officials, including the president, can only be removed in a long and complex process. Magyar expects them to “look in the mirror” and leave voluntarily, but if they resist, it might take a lot of time and effort, Ligeti warned. Magyar, to be sure, pledged “not to use unlawful means to rebuild the rule of law”.

Magyar said his first moves will include joining the European Public Prosecution Office (EPPO), a move that could allow EU prosecutors to take aim at Orbán and his associates. Hungary has so far refused to be under EPPO’s jurisdiction, which investigates and prosecutes fraud and graft cases with EU funds.

EU needs to rein in Hungary expectations after Viktor Orbán’s election defeatOpens in new window ]

Magyar will also tackle corruption with a new anti-graft agency and root out the funding and institutional support for state propaganda, he said.

A shake-up of the corporate world is likely to follow as Orbán’s business elite has built a wide-ranging network of companies, including opaque hedge funds with massive stakes in various sectors, several banks and assets from tourism and energy to construction and real estate.

Public contracts are likely to dry up and existing procurement deals will be reviewed, Magyar said. That will expose banks that had financed those companies’ expansion, leading to possible financial market turbulence.

To reassure investors, Magyar pledged to co-operate with central bank governor Mihály Varga, an Orbán loyalist and former finance minister.

The National Bank of Hungary, which is also the financial market regulator, has been accused of corruption benefiting Orbán’s inner circle under Varga’s predecessor, diverting more than €1 billon into opaque firms and investment funds that largely lost the money, a state audit office investigation found. It also detected corruption during a lavish renovation of the bank’s headquarters.

Mihály Varga, governor of the National Bank of Hungary. Photograph: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Mihály Varga, governor of the National Bank of Hungary. Photograph: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images

“Regardless of who appointed [Varga], I think he wants to fulfil his legal mandate,” Magyar said. “Fiscal and monetary policy co-operation is important, with due independence for the central bank. If we can work this way, there is no need for chaos and financial market instability because of a war between the government and the central bank.”

As for other outgoing ministers, Magyar suggested they could be criminally prosecuted, noting that foreign minister Péter Szijjártó on Monday was found shredding documents relating to EU sanctions on Russia.

“What’s happening in Hungary right now, the shredders have started up,” Magyar said. “Not only in ministries but also in ... companies of the Orbán elite. All I can say is, too little too late.”

Szijjártó did not respond to requests seeking comment. He has maintained close ties to the Kremlin despite the war in Ukraine, regularly meeting his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and keeping him informed in phone calls about EU sanctions discussions.

Magyar has accused Orbán and Szijjártó of being Moscow’s puppets and has pledged to reduce Russian influence. But he will be constrained by Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia, enshrined in binding long-term agreements on oil and gas imports and on nuclear power.

“Russians are lodged deep inside the government communications apparatus, in the information sphere, cyber security and intelligence sectors,” said András Rácz, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Energy dependence comes on top of that.”

“The first time the long-term gas import agreement can be renegotiated is in 2031,” Rácz said. “There are existing contracts and technological restrictions. Any quick changes will not include the energy sector.”

Magyar will have to contend with centres of ideological influence built by Orbán and often financed by state resources. Crucially, until the next municipal elections in 2029, Fidesz will control hundreds of local governments around the country.

Magyar said he would move to defund centres of thought like the Matthias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank and political training centre, endowed with a significant grant of publicly owned stock.

Public media will pause news operations until it is rebalanced, Magyar said. A sprawling empire of media organisations controlled by Orbán loyalists might survive in a reduced form, giving Fidesz a platform, said media expert Gábor Polyák at the ELTE University in Budapest.

“Shutting down taxpayer funding won’t lead to the complete shutdown” of Orbán-friendly media, Polyák said. Some businesspeople will seek a way out of the Orbán system, he said.

“But one should not expect a complete implosion.”

– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026