The defeat of populist leader Viktor Orbán in Hungary’s election will remove a block that had seen the tricky job of negotiating common foreign policy positions in Brussels become almost impossible.
For more than a year, the European Union has not been able to jointly agree on a set of words expressing support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Orbán, the far-right leader who maintains warm relations with Moscow, refused to add his name to any statement backing Kyiv.
As a result, standard joint communiqués mentioning Ukraine following summits of EU leaders carried an asterisk, saying the view “was firmly supported by 26 heads of state or government”, rather than all 27.
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That matters beyond words on a page. EU decisions need unanimous approval in the realm of foreign affairs, budget talks, tax or the future enlargement of the union.
There is a good reason for this. Governments have always been wary of ceding too much power to the European institutions, even if that sometimes means moving at the pace of the slowest member state and working with a Brussels political system where “fudgy” compromises are the norm.
Orbán was able to weaponise those national veto powers to hamstring the rest of the union’s efforts to aid Ukraine. Many EU states consider this fight existential for Kyiv and the wider Continent.
Previously, weaponisation of these powers meant regular threats from Budapest about withholding support for something, before a last-minute deal was struck. Orbán was viewed as a pain, but ultimately a transactional politician who would strike a deal or relent when serious pressure was applied.
That changed in the last year. Orbán was feeling the pressure from Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, which ultimately swept his Fidesz government away in a landslide victory on Sunday.
The Hungarian prime minister tried to make the election about the Ukraine war, falsely claiming the opposition would lead Hungary into the conflict.
That became a real problem for Brussels. Orbán was no longer in the deal-making mood. Additional economic sanctions targeting Russia have been blocked for months as a result.
Orbán backtracked on a commitment that he would not stop the rest of the EU from providing a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. Kyiv has warned it is running low on funds and there will be a rush now to get that lifeline loan released.
Negotiations on Ukraine’s bid to join the union, which will likely take years, have been stalled by Orbán since June 2024.
The obstruction extended beyond Ukraine. Budapest vetoed EU sanctions on violent Israeli settlers during Israel’s war in Gaza.
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Magyar has signalled a willingness to work with the European Commission. He wants to unfreeze billions of euros in EU funding for Hungary. This money is on ice due to rule-of-law concerns.
Orbán had allies in Slovakia’s populist prime minister Robert Fico and Czech Republic’s conservative leader Andrej Babis, and sometimes Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
The patience of other European leaders had begun to run out. Several of them rounded on Orbán at an EU summit last month for going back on his word on the €90 billion loan.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa, who chairs the leader-level summits, began hinting at a firmer response.
A reference to Orbán breaching the union’s principle of “loyal co-operation” was a warning that serious penalties were under consideration. In an extreme scenario, Hungary’s right to vote on EU decisions could have been suspended.
EU leaders are in Cyprus next week for what will probably be Orbán’s farewell summit before Magyar takes over as prime minister.
He won’t leave empty handed. Costa has a tradition of gifting outgoing leaders a signed picture of the European Council group all together; a parting present to take back to Budapest.
