Viktor Orban is very comfortable playing the bad guy in Brussels, but the show is beginning to grate on his fellow European Union leaders.
Hungary’s far-right prime minister has made blocking EU support for Ukraine a central plank of a close election campaign at home, where he is trailing in the polls after 15 years in power.
Orban surprised everyone at a December summit when he agreed to let other leaders push ahead with a plan for the EU to borrow €90 billion and lend it to Ukraine, as long as Hungary didn’t have to pay towards the cost.
The populist changed his mind a few weeks later, announcing he would use national veto powers to stop the money being sent to Kyiv until Ukraine repaired a damaged pipeline bringing cheap Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
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The Druzhba pipeline, damaged by Russian strikes, has become a point of fierce tension between Kyiv and Budapest. Relations have gone from bad to openly hostile.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy went as far as remarking he might give the address of a “certain person” – Orban – to Ukrainian troops, who could send him a message. The Ukrainian leader said the pipeline repairs will take weeks and restoring knocked-out Ukrainian energy infrastructure was a more pressing priority.
Orban has accused Zelenskiy and Brussels officials of a plot to push him from power in favour of his electoral rival, Péter Magyar.
Arriving at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday, Orban stuck to his position. He would not wave through the €90 billion loan, or agree to fresh economic sanctions targeting Russia, until the oil was flowing again.
In an attempt to break the impasse, a team of experts from the European Commission is in Ukraine preparing to travel to the pipeline. It will write a report on the damage and when it might be repaired.
Hungarians will vote in those parliamentary elections on April 12th.
“He is using Ukraine as a weapon in his election campaign. We had a deal and I think he betrayed us,” Finland’s prime minister Petteri Orpo said when asked about Orban obstructing the €90 billion loan.
Orban has often threatened to veto sanctions on Russia before backing down at the last minute.
The problem this time is that Ukraine is running out of money. The loan is seen as crucial to keep its defences and public services funded. Europe has had to pick up more slack since Donald Trump’s administration stopped contributing aid to Kyiv early last year.
Latest estimates predict Ukraine will need the funds by early May, meaning a deal on the loan must be sorted by the middle of next month.
European Council president António Costa, who chairs the EU summits, took a rare cut at Orban when the doors closed behind the union’s leaders.
The former Portuguese prime minister called his about-turn unacceptable, according to EU sources briefed on the private discussion.
It is understood other national leaders backed Costa, expressing serious frustration that their previous agreement was not being respected.
European leaders are wary a public spat will play into Orban’s narrative about meddling pro-Kyiv forces undermining Hungary’s sovereignty. He may lose the election, but Ukraine would run critically short of funds before any new government is sworn in.
You can be sure creative legal minds inside Ursula von der Leyen’s commission are working up a fallback, possibly based around taking Orban’s initial commitment in December as binding, to get the money to Kyiv should the Hungarian leader refuse to drop the villain act.
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