In a 19-minute speech about the Iran war this morning, Donald Trump said it is almost finished. But it will escalate first.
Trump misses his off-ramp
Ahead of Donald Trump’s televised address on the Iran war this morning, media speculation focused on whether he would declare victory or announce an escalation. In the end he did both, declaring that the military operation was almost complete but saying that it could continue for another two or three weeks.
The second part of the message is the more important because it signals an escalation that could easily slip out of Washington’s control as Iran retaliates. Promising to bring Iran “back to the stone ages” over the next two or three weeks, Trump explicitly threatened to destroy the country’s critical infrastructure.
“If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric-generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all, because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would be gone. And there’s not a thing they could do about it,” he said.
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“Thanks to the progress we’ve made I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly. We are going to hit them extremely hard. Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.”
Thousands of soldiers from the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division started arriving in the Middle East this week, joining 2,500 US marines and sailors. The marines typically undertake expeditionary operations including amphibious landings while the paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne are usually used to seize key terrain and in early-stage combat deployments.
The arrival of ground forces expands US military options and decreases the time needed to launch operations against Iran. But it also increases the risk of more US casualties and it was notable that Trump invoked the deaths of service personnel as a justification for prolonging the war.
“As we celebrate this progress, we think especially of the 13 American warriors who have laid down their lives in this fight to prevent our children from ever having to face a nuclear Iran,” he said.
“Now, we must honour them by completing the mission for which they gave their lives.”
Trump took a swipe at America’s European allies, accusing them of lacking courage, but he did not repeat the threat he made in a newspaper interview on Wednesday to withdraw from Nato. He said the countries that need the oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz should “go to the strait and just take it”.
“And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It will just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil because that’s all they have to try and rebuild,” he said.
This is probably true but the strait is likely to reopen on Iran’s terms to some extent just as it remains open now to ships from states that negotiate with the Islamic Republic.
Bloomberg on Wednesday reported on an increasingly streamlined system involving intermediary companies linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, secret codes and payment in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency.
The talks Britain will host today with 35 countries on forming a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz should be viewed in this context as part of an effort to strengthen their hand in future negotiations with Iran.
Even if Trump fulfils his threat to intensify the US military campaign, nothing he said this morning suggests that he has any plan that will weaken Iran’s grip on the strait and consequently on much of the world’s energy supply.
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