As the United States bombs targets in Iran for the second night in a row, Donald Trump describes the Iranian leadership as scum and says the ceasefire is over. Or maybe not.
A most violent ceasefire
US forces bombed military and civilian targets in Iran on Wednesday night, including port infrastructure and a railway bridge, in the heaviest wave of air strikes since the ceasefire began last month. Last night’s attacks hit a broader range of targets over a greater geographical area than Tuesday’s, marking an apparent escalation of US military action.
The latest flare-up began when Iranian forces struck three commercial ships as they attempted to cross through the Strait of Hormuz using a corridor that is not approved by Tehran. The US retaliated with air strikes aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to attack ships in the strait, hitting dozens of small boats used by Iranian forces.
Iran responded by striking US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait on Tuesday night and air raid sirens were heard in both of those Gulf states again this morning in anticipation of further Iranian attacks.
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Iran claims that, under the agreement signed with the US, it is responsible for regulating shipping through the strait and that it is enforcing that deal by attacking ships that use the unapproved route. Washington says that it had only agreed to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports on condition that Iran allowed shipping to pass freely through the strait.
In response to Iran’s latest action, the US has also revoked a licence that allowed Tehran to sell its oil on the international market. This was an important economic incentive for Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and removing it means that Tehran has less to lose from closing it again.
Although Trump declared at the Nato summit in Ankara that he thought the agreement with Iran was dead, he said he didn’t mind if his negotiators continued talking to Tehran. The next round of talks, which were suspended for the weeklong funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are due to take place in Islamabad this weekend and although they have not been cancelled, it remains uncertain if they will go ahead.
Khamenei’s funeral, which drew up to 15 million mourners as the body was brought to cities in Iran and Iraq, was not only a major political and religious event but an important diplomatic moment too. The US, Israel and the Europeans were not invited but China, Russia and India sent high-level representatives, as did Iran’s neighbours in Pakistan, Iraq and Turkey.
Most notable was the presence of Gulf states Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, all of which had been targets for Iranian attacks during the war. During the funeral, Iranian officials also met representatives from Hamas, Hizbullah and the Houthi rebels Ansar Allah, reaffirming their enduring alliance.
By the time Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One on his way home from the Ankara summit, he was claiming that Iran “want to make a deal so badly” and playing down the prospect of a return to full-scale war. Not for the first time, the US approach to dealing with Iran appeared confused and incoherent while Tehran’s strategy seemed more focused despite the country’s diffuse leadership structure.
European diplomats who have negotiated with Iran describe the process as infuriating and sometimes bewildering but even as Trump in Ankara described Tehran’s negotiators as evil scum, he paid a grudging tribute to their ingenuity.
“My whole life, that’s all I do is deals. My whole life. That’s how I became president. I guess that’s a deal too, right?” he said.
“I had a lot of great success, tremendous success. Everything I did, I was successful. And I deal with these guys and I say, this is from a different school.”
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