Two tankers carrying Russian oil for Cuba may never reach the desperate people they are intended for. But they could help Vladimir Putin.
Russian oil on troubled waters
A Russian oil tanker carrying 700,000 barrels of crude oil was heading for the Cuban port of Matanzas until, according to maritime trackers, it changed course yesterday. The Anatoly Kolodkin is still reported to be sailing towards the Caribbean but is no longer headed directly to Cuba.
The ship, which was sanctioned by the United States, the European Union and Britain, is one of two vessels carrying Russian oil reportedly bound for Cuba. The Hong Kong-registered Sea Horse, believed to be carrying about 200,000 barrels of diesel, took an erratic course around the Caribbean before diverting away from Cuba towards Trinidad and Tobago.
Between them, the two shipments could supply Cuba’s energy needs for only a few weeks. But in the face of acute shortages caused by the US blockade of oil shipments to the island from Venezuela and Mexico, they would offer a lifeline.
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The Anatoly Kolodkin’s reported change of course followed reports that the American destroyer USS Nitze was seen near the Bahamas and was also heading towards the central Caribbean. Other reports said US coast guard vessels were in the region to prevent the Russian shipments from arriving in Cuba.
Vladimir Putin is unlikely to risk a direct confrontation with the US over Cuba, despite the Kremlin’s condemnation of the blockade and the hardship it is causing. But even if the Russian oil shipments are unable to land, the exercise of sending them carries some benefits for Moscow.
Putin did nothing to help Venezuela after the US abducted its president Nicolás Maduro and coerced the government in Caracas to adopt policies dictated by Washington. But Russia’s relationship with Cuba is older and deeper and failure to make any effort to show solidarity with Havana would send an unwelcome message to Moscow’s friends elsewhere.
The expedition has the added advantage of creating an irritation for Washington that Putin can use as leverage in his broader negotiation with Trump about normalising relations between the US and Russia. Moscow’s reported sharing of intelligence with Iran serves a similar purpose, and Politico reported last week that Russia offered to stop doing so if the US ended its intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
The war in Iran has given Moscow a badly needed economic boost with a sharp rise in energy prices and a temporary lifting of US sanctions on Russian oil exports. Russia’s finance ministry said this month that its oil and gas revenues fell by about 50 per cent over the past 12 months to their lowest level since 2020.
Even if the war in Iran ends soon and the oil price drops, the revenue windfall will put Russia in a better position to fund the war in Ukraine as more intense fighting returns with warmer weather in the coming weeks. Putin can also hope Trump’s unhappiness with his European allies’ failure to toe the line immediately on Iran will translate into greater pressure on Kyiv to make concessions.
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