Almost nobody believes that Myanmar’s first elections since the 2021 coup are free or fair. But they could still advance the interests of the ruling military junta – and of its supporters in Beijing.
Myanmar’s sham elections
The main party affiliated with Myanmar’s military has claimed a thumping victory in Sunday’s first phase of elections to restore a nominally civilian government. The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) said it won more than 80 per cent of the seats where counting was completed.
The elections were held in only a third of the country’s townships because much of the country is still not under the military’s control. The voting was accompanied by a crackdown on dissent, while the authorities used violence to intimidate people into voting.
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“These elections are clearly taking place in an environment of violence and repression,” United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk said.
“There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly that allow for the free and meaningful participation of the people.”
The military took power in a coup in 2021 that toppled the democratically elected government led by Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been in detention since then. But a civil war left the junta in effective control of only half of the country, with numerous armed groups competing for land and resources.
The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on some military figures but they continue to trade with Myanmar. The Association of East Asian States (ASEAN) tried to facilitate talks between the junta and some opposition groups but the initiative led nowhere.
China is the regime’s most important external patron but its support for the military leadership is conditional, and Beijing also has relationships with some of the rebel groups. China’s primary interest is in maintaining stability on its border with Myanmar and protecting its investments in the country.
Beijing hopes that a nominal return to civilian rule will help to restore stability and begin the process of international re-engagement with Myanmar. China’s foreign ministry welcomed Sunday’s vote and the Chinese election monitoring team on the ground said it proceeded in a generally stable and orderly manner.
Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Tuesday that ASEAN leaders would consider developments in Myanmar following the elections.
“Any assessment will proceed in a sequenced manner, guided by the need to reduce violence, avoid actions that could deepen divisions or confer premature legitimacy, and preserve the possibility of an inclusive and credible pathway forward,” he said.
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