Welsh hopes rest with Jones

Pool B/Wales v Australia:Wales have seen the light. Apparently the revelation came in the second half of last Sunday's game against Canada. According to their coach, Gareth Jenkins, that was when he identified how he wanted to play for the remainder of the World Cup.

"It's a fluid game. It's a game that's high-tempo," he said. Unfortunately for James Hook the coach's vision did not include him.

When the moment arrived the 22-year-old had handed the Welsh outhalf baton back to Stephen Jones and that is why the "old head" will start today's pivotal Pool B match against Australia at the Millennium Stadium, leaving Hook to bemoan his luck after one bad game.

"Between the two of them we have the model of a perfect flyhalf. But where Steve is at the moment, James can't be," Jenkins said this week without criticising Hook's game management during that first half against Canada.

However, the statistics show that, when Jones replaced the Osprey, Wales were 17-9 down and 35 minutes later they had won by 25 points.

If Jones is back in control it means that the wheel has gone full circle in less than a year. Last November when Jones limped off against Australia in Cardiff it was Hook who saved the day, kicking his side to a 29-29 draw. Wales, which was already falling out of love with Gavin Henson, woke to discover it had a new spike-haired hero.

Against Argentina a month ago when Hook left the Puma back row and midfield flat-footed to set up his captain, Gareth Thomas, it seem inconceivable that he would be warming the replacements' bench today.

But Jenkins has gone for experience against a side he believes have improved mightily since the autumn. Colin Charvis, another hero of Nantes, who boasts an 11-year Test career and 90 caps, replaces Alix Popham, who has a mere 28, and as a lesser surprise Thomas, making his 99th appearance, takes over at full-back from Kevin Morgan.

"We have spent a lot of time in the last few weeks looking at and analysing Australia and coaches and players are all agreed that they are a really improved team," said Jenkins.

"They have made a significant improvement in their game.

Their scrum has turned the corner and is now really competitive, they have one of the best lineouts in the world and are really consistent there and they have a lot of mix and variations in their three- quarter options."

What really scares Wales is Australia's ability to score from first-phase play where the veteran halfbacks George Gregan and Stephen Larkham fashion tries for any of the backs willing to run into the space they manufacture - although Larkham is rated 50-50 after injuring a knee in training yesterday. But if the game is to be won anywhere it is likely to be in the back row of the scrum.

Wales backs are quite capable of causing mayhem of their own, assuming their front row stands up to the heat of the scrum and their locks get a decent share of lineout ball, but it will be the ferocity of contact areas which will count above all else.

There Martyn Williams will have his hands full of George Smith, the abrasive Charvis will have to stack his experience against the rampaging Rocky Elsom, and Jonathan Thomas will confront the 18st 12lb Wycliff Palu.

The other factor is the huge advantage won by Wales when they supported France in the bidding process in 2002. The votes-for-games deal brokered then gives Wales two home pool games and, should they beat Australia, the prospect of a quarter-final played under the Millennium Stadium's closed roof which Jenkins calculates confers a 15 per cent advantage.

Australia's coach, John Connolly, once of Swansea and then of Bath, has also been doing his sums and says that home advantage accounts for between 75 and 80 per cent of wins in Super 14 and neither he nor the Australian board is happy at the perceived unfairness.

However, whenever World Cups come around the Wallabies seem to put distractions aside. They have been champions twice and have the happy knack of peaking at the right time.

If they have built on the Tri-Nations form that gave them victory over New Zealand it should be enough to silence 73,000 Welsh voices.