We can justify great expectations

Expectations ARE high this afternoon after the outstanding performance in Paris two weeks ago. It is useless, however, to make a prediction based on results so far this season.

If you go on the basis that Wales were destroyed by England, who, in turn, were overwhelmed by France, who should have been beaten by Ireland, we should now be odds-on favourites. On the other hand, Ireland were beaten by Scotland, who were subsequently beaten by Wales. It is also of some significance that in their two matches in the championship to date, Ireland have scored only three points fewer than their two opponents. The winning of this match is entirely up to the Irish team. Their performances against Scotland and France were contradictory to say the least. If Ireland perform as they did against Scotland, then Wales will, surely, beat us, but, if they play as well, or even better, than they did in France, I do not believe that it is within the capacity of the Welsh team to beat us. I also think that the Welsh have suffered to a greater extent with the changes they have had to make. Their two centres are among the few world-class players in the side and they will be at a loss, mentally as well as physically.

I am sure that Ciaran Clarke is delighted with his recall. Obviously, Kevin Nowlan will be very disappointed, as all the indicators were that he was the understudy to Conor O'Shea.

The coach and manager were at the recent St Mary's/Garryowen match. Watching on television, I got the impression that Kevin was trying too hard to catch their eyes and trying to make too much out of situations that required a little more caution. They have, probably, decided on Clarke because he is a more predictable player. I have always felt that Ciaran Clarke has never really fulfilled his true potential. He has been unfortunate with injuries which have struck at unfortunate times for him. Also, he has, I believe, been accused of being too "laid back" at times.

There are few backs in the country with as much physical strength and speed as Clarke. He is one of the longest and most accurate left-footed kickers in the country and I will be astonished if he is not called upon to do a lot of his kicking to the right-hand touchline this afternoon. Hopefully, the Irish team will also use him as an attacking force, particularly off the left-hand side of scrums as Terenure, his club, do to great effect.

In the aftermath of the French match, there was a reluctance to criticise any aspect of the performance. I thought, however, that the decision to make four changes in the pack at a critical stage of the game was questionable. Keith Wood and Paddy Johns were certainly the worse for wear at that stage as they had both taken a lot of punishment which, at times, was self-inflicted by the ferocity of their tackling. However, both props, Paul Wallace and Richie Corrigan, were still going with great gusto and were certainly comfortable with the pace. The coach has signalled that he was likely to make these changes before the match and they did seem premeditated.

It was unfortunate that we lost two of our line-outs subsequently and thereby conceded possession to France, from which they reaped two scores. However, the morale of the squad will have gained by the use of so many substitutes. It will be interesting to see how the substitutions, if there are any, are made this afternoon.

A lot of attention will focus on the two scrum-halves. Conor McGuinness has, rightly, received great praise for his performance in Paris. The Welsh will have studied the video recordings in great detail and, I suspect, they will be paying a lot of attention to Ireland's number nine.

This should, in turn, give Victor Costello, at number eight, and Eric Elwood, at number 10, a bit more space in which to operate. What I liked about McGuinness's play in Paris was the way he took his time to look for breaks. Too often, players go on the pitch and look for gaps where there are none. The really top-class player waits for his opportunity and then takes it when it presents itself.

In this respect, Robert Howley is the central figure in the Welsh side and must be carefully watched and his opportunities curtailed to the very minimum.

Our line-out was outstanding in Paris and I will be surprised if Wales do not avoid kicking to touch as much as possible. They will probably try to keep the ball in play and force the Irish to put it out while under pressure. The Irish coach probably expects this and this, in turn, may explain why he has opted for Clarke, rather than Nowlan, at full back. Wales will surely try to play the game with the ball in hand and run at the Irish. What will happen next will depend totally on the quality of the Irish tackling and the standard of the Irish defence. As I wrote after the French match, they have set themselves a standard below which they must not go. That standard was very impressive, particularly the manner in which they organised themselves off rucks and mauls and in broken play in general.

There was a willingness to take responsibility and there was discipline and purpose about the manner in which they aligned themselves. In the modern game, defence has become extremely important and we have been lacking in that area in recent years.

It is very much a state of mind and players have to accept that there are going to be long periods in which a team has to defend without touching the ball. We were very much improved in that area in Paris and it was our strength in defence which upset the French most of all and created loose opportunities for us to capitalise on.

There were also signs in Paris, and to a lesser extent in the Scottish match, that the team is capable of putting continuous phases of play together in attack. Hopefully, we will see more of these this afternoon as a result of the length of time which the players have spent together as a team.

Overall, we have a lot to look forward to and I believe that this is one that we will win.

(In an interview with Sean Kilfeather)