Recent history and the bookmakers suggest it is at least evenmoney that the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner will be seen at Longchamp tomorrow. Four of the last eight winners of Europe's biggest mile-and-a-half race warmed up in one of the traditional trials over course and distance - all three of which will be shown live on BBC 2.
Carnegie in 1994 and Helissio in 1996 won the Prix Niel, a race in which Peintre Celebre finished a controversial second last year prior to his five-length win in the Arc.
And Subotica stepped up on his second in the Prix Foy in 1992 by going one place better in the big race three weeks later.
Ante-post betting underlines the significance of tomorrow's action, as five of the top seven in William Hill's Arc market will be in action.
The Pascal Bary-trained French Derby first and second Dream Well (7-2 favourite) and Croco Rouge (7-1) plus Godolphin's Great Voltigeur Stakes winner Sea Wave (8-1, ridden by Frankie Dettori) clash in the Prix Niel.
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