RUGBY: Newport G Dragons v UlsterULSTER KNOW victory tonight will render obsolete the mathematical permutations that could still provide an escape clause, dependent on results elsewhere, in facilitating their progression to a Magners League semi-final. A couple of bonus points here, an unlikely result there, offer several possibilities, one of which could still include a game in Belfast if Leinster were to lose at the RDS.
Contingency is a word Ulster coach Brian McLaughlin is unlikely to include in his pre-match speech. He’ll demand of his players they go out and win the match, thereby assuming control of their destiny in reaching the play-offs.
Denied four internationals, three Irish in Andrew Trimble, Paddy Wallace and Stephen Ferris, and one Springbok, BJ Botha, the province face a tricky assignment against a Dragons team that has finished the season strongly and proved a doughty proposition on their own patch.
The Welsh club have won three of their last four home games.
McLaughlin has recalled props Tom Court and Declan Fitzpatrick, re-jigged his backrow to accommodate the loss of Willie Faloon and the promotion of Robbie Diack, and retained the backline en masse.
The Dragons haven’t gone for their strongest team strictly speaking, given the presence of the excellent Joe Bearman and prop Ben Castle on the bench, while coach Darren Edwards has elected to name young outhalf Steffan Jones at fullback.
However, many a visitor to Rodney Parade this season has found the close-knit camaraderie and prodigious work-rate of the hosts tough to sunder.
In left wing Aled Brew the Dragons possess the second highest try scorer in the tournament this season with 12 and a really tough proposition to handle. His direct confrontation with gifted Ireland Under-20 international Craig Gilroy – he’s crossed the whitewash eight times in 11 matches – will be instructive.
This duel, though, will be an addendum to the main script which houses the two packs; they will decide which halfbacks are afforded the more stable platform.
Rory Best must lead the visitors shrewdly, ably supported by his Springbok cohort up front, supplemented by the abrasion of Dan Tuohy and Chris Henry.
Ruan Pienaar has been a pivotal influence all season, so too Ian Humphreys, but they need scope to manage the game.
There is plenty of football in the Ulster backline, particularly in the centre: the province will need to go and win the game rather than try not to lose it. It’s likely to be a subtle but important difference on the night.
Losing to the Northampton Saints in the Heineken Cup should have taught Ulster notable lessons about dealing with pressure while retaining an integrity to their patterns: if they have absorbed those details then their season should not end here.
NEWPORT GWENT DRAGONS: S Jones; A Hughes, T Riley, P Leach, A Brew; J Tovey, W Evans; P Price, L Burns, D Way; L Charteris, A Jones; D Lydiate, G Thomas, T Faletau. Replacements: T Willis, H Gustafson, B Castle, A Coombs, J Bearman, M Watkins, J Evans, M Jones.
ULSTER: A D'Arcy; C Gilroy, D Cave, N Spence, S Danielli; I Humphreys, R Pienaar; T Court, R Best (capt), D Fitzpatrick; J Muller, D Tuohy; P Wannenburg, C Henry, R Diack. Replacements: A Kyriacou, P McAllister, J Cronin, T Barker, TJ Anderson, P Marshall, I Whitten, C Gaston.
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland).
Leading points scorers: Dragons – Jason Tovey 139. Ulster – Ruan Pienaar 119.
Leading try scorers: Dragons – Aled Brew 12. Ulster – Craig Gilroy 8.
Verdict: Ulster to win.
