Stage set for last eight act

European Cup:The post-World Cup fallout having lingered on through this apparently never-ending winter now, at last, we're getting into the meat of the rugby season, writes Gerry Thornley,  Rugby Correspondent

Since the current Heineken European Cup format of six pool winners and two best runners-up came into operation in 1999-2000, especially after the introduction of the bonus points system four years ago, there's no more compelling time in the rugby calendar than the next two weekends - and so it will be again.

Realistically, about 14 teams are still in contention for the last eight in early April, while at a push the likes of Stade Francais and Leinster can cling to some mathematical hopes of qualification. As expected in light of a lop-sided draw which threw seven real contenders into Pools Five and Six, there will be some significant casualties from the pool stages and some unusual names in the quarter-finals.

In the event of two sides in the same pool finishing level, their final placings will be decided on their head-to-head meetings, with match points (ie four for a win plus bonus points) the first determining factor. If still level, tries in the two games will determine the outcome and then points aggregate over the two meetings. If teams are from different pools then the first criterion is tries scored in their six matches followed by points' difference.

At least one of the two best runners-up has historically emerged from one of the pools containing an Italian club and despite their desultory form both in Europe and domestically, Perpignan look best placed to qualify behind London Irish from Pool One.

If the Ospreys overcome Gloucester in their momentous Anglo-Welsh clash tomorrow, they will be best placed to go through as well, but teams like Leinster will see a door open if the Ospreys slip up then, for potentially that could open up the second and last runners-up spot across the board.

In truth, however, Munster are Ireland's most viable hope of sustaining Irish interest in the latter stages for a 10th successive year and they are reasonably well placed, albeit with two momentous matches ahead of them. Conceivably, the final eight could read something like: London Irish, Gloucester, Toulouse, Saracens, Munster, Cardiff, Perpignan and the Ospreys.