"Ireland have such a limited attacking strategy based around three individuals, Henderson, O'Driscoll and Wood, with all three running in a predictable fashion that I fully expect a comfortable win for the Boks." Former London Irish centre and Sprinbok international Brendan Venter didn't put a tooth in it when discussing Ireland's merits ahead of tomorrow's Test match at Lansdowne Road.
Venter's analysis appeared on the official South African Rugby Football Union website, produced in conjunction with John McFarland, the technical analyst for the Springboks at the 1999 World Cup and 2000 Tri Nations. Venter's candid appraisal of sundry aspects of Ireland's gameplan, including restarts, lineouts, scrums, attacking game and defence would not be prescribed bed-time reading for several Irish players.
Having played with and against several of the Ireland teams, spending 18 months at Sunbury, he offers a forthright and blunt opinion on Ireland's progress, real or perceived, over the last 12 months.
He initially offers a rider in his analysis stating that "the Boks will underestimate them (Ireland) at their peril," but if South African coach Harry Viljoen and his team were to read Venter's musings, then they would be forgiven for thinking that victory tomorrow would be little short of a fait accompli against substandard opposition.
Venter first shines a spotlight on Ireland's attacking game, pointing out that a change in strategy has been undergone over the last year, largely attributable to the emergence of Peter Stringer, Ronan O'Gara and Brian O'Driscoll.
"Whereas previously the Irish backs would only see the ball from third phase, they are now keen to give them a chance of attacking from first phase. Henderson at centre will set targets from scrums and lineouts and then watch for hooker Keith Wood, one of the most explosive ball carriers in the British Isles.
"He will get good width on his carry to give Stringer and O'Gara the opportunity to set O'Driscoll free in the outside channel from third phase. O'Driscoll is a dynamic runner and has a really good right-foot sidestep."
Venter then refers to Malcolm O'Kelly and his athleticism, advising the Springboks to move their best restart taker, Mark Andrews, away from covering the short one. He feels that Ireland are very susceptible to the short restart, warning that if the Springboks kick long, "we must attack/double hit the lone runner who will be Wood. It will be an effective way to physically intimidate him at the start of the game."
He describes the Irish lineout as predictable, mostly driven on O'Kelly and claims that an adherence to those tactics would be suicidal against Albert van den Berg and Mark Andrews. "If the ball is delivered from the top, the powerful Henderson will explode onto the ball and Percy (Montgomery) will need Corne (Krige) and Braam's (van Straaten) protection as he is a very hard player to stop.
"Inside centre Henderson has a big powerful stride so he must not be allowed to run one-on-one. Then it will be a forward runner and then flyhalf O'Gara who will hit the blindside (Ireland A centre Mike Mullins scored in the same fashion against the Springboks midweek team) - a very simple pattern which is easy to stop."
He goes on to analyse in depth Ireland's attacking five-metre lineout routine where O'Kelly catches and transfers to the front jumper, the focal point for the subsequent drive. He lauds the South African lineout and then points out that Ireland's defensive lineouts close to their own line are weak.
From scrums, he points out that Ireland's moves are standard and suggests that: "They (Ireland) play in the same direction across the field from scrums, so watch for our flankers coming around quickly from the far side to gang-tackle second runner Wood or prop Clohessy.
"Ireland employ miss-one, No 12 loops, giving O'Driscoll a chance to attack the inside channel. He is lefthanded and put one beautiful pass off this hand for wing Hickie's try against Japan.
"Pieter Roussouw must pick up on O'Driscoll's body language as he does this standing still. They also run a lot of inside centre fades and outside centre taking a short ball off the flyhalf. This is their favourite way of generating momentum in broken play."
Rob Henderson might beg to differ with Venter's assertion while generally sifting through Ireland's defensive pattern that "Henderson is easily confused by decoy runners in this channel, therefore the use of simply decoy loops or blocks by 10 and 12 will be enough to gain momentum."
In summation Venter offered the following recommendations to the Springboks.
1. "Attack flyhalf O'Gara and inside centre Henderson's channel, but use decoy runners and loops.
2. "Use the second backline play (blindside wing coming round) but be aware of the right wing `burglar' Hickie on the intercept, especially when he is up early.
3. "Openside flanker Kieron Dawson is very good at slowing ball down. Our ball presentation must be as precise as last week. If we don't bridge or get support quickly to the ball carrier, we could be in trouble.
4. "Percy mustn't take the ball standing still, but attack the opposition defence line. They are much more organised and push up far better than Argentina."
It was then that Venter asserted that the Boks would win comfortably. This should add a little spice to tomorrow's encounter.
The full text of the analysis from which the quotes used in the article were taken is available at www.sarfu.org
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