Connacht may find it harder to break new ground against Ulster

Ulster v Connacht, Kingspan Stadium, Friday, 7.35pm (TG4/BBC)

The last time Connacht won in Belfast, Seán Lemass had just completed his first year as taoiseach, John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon had just conducted the first presidential televised debate, Alfred Hitchcok's Pyscho was released for the first time, Floyd Patterson was the unified heavyweight champions of the world and, eh, Burnley were champions of the Football League.

Yes, it was a little while ago alright; November 1960 to be precise. Viewed in that light, Friday's visit to the Kingspan Stadium would appear to be the ultimate one-off test of Connacht's ability to break new ground, in every sense, following on from their first league wins in Thomond Park and the Liberty Stadium in this storied season of theirs.

Dozen visits

In their previous dozen visits to what was Ravenhill, they have lost the lot and generally suffered plenty of pain along the way – witness the 56-12 thrashing in Pat Lam's first campaign two seasons ago – the average scoreline being 31-11 in Ulster's favour.

This renewal finds Connacht in a stronger position than ever before, a six-game winning run taking them into a four-point lead atop the table with just four rounds remaining, and a dozen points clear of their hosts in fifth place.

Yet last week's sleeves-rolled-up, minor epic at home to Leinster came at a cost with AJ MacGinty becoming their third injured outhalf, and he has been joined on the sidelines by two of their Irish Six Nations contingent, Nathan White and Kieron Marmion, as well as the hitherto ever-present Tiernan O'Halloran, the launching pad for their counter-attacking game.

The 23-year-old Shane O'Leary will make his first league start at outhalf. O'Leary was born in Cork, reared in Tipperary and played under-age rugby for Munster as well as the Canadian Under-20s (for whom he qualified through his Canadian mother) before spending the 2013-14 season with Grenoble.

In O’Halloran’s absence, Robbie Henshaw thus returns to the starting line-up, ironically in a direct match-up with his Irish midfield partner Jared Payne, as Lam again partners last week’s full debutant Peter Robb with the team’s all-action go-to man, Bundee Aki.

Nonetheless, with John Cooney chosen in place of Marmion, due to “a minor quad injury”, Connacht have never have fielded such a relatively callow 9-10-12 combination, especially when set against the Ruan Pienaar-Paddy Jackson-Stuart McCloskey triumvirate – the most consistent combination in Ulster’s season to date, especially in tandem with Luke Marshall outside them.

Up front, Rodney Ah You replaces White, as the Australian-born prop of Fermanagh extraction Finlay Bealham (formerly with the Ulster academy) remains on the bench despite his impressive 75-minute stint when replacing White at tighthead last week.

Andrew Brown replaces Quinn Roux in the secondrow, with the newly capped Ultan Dillane recalled to the bench, while James Connolly’s recall means last week’s man-of-the-match Eoin McKeon shifts to number eight. Warhorse John Muldoon, the tournament’s most capped player of all time, plays his 209th League game at blindside.

The 21-year-old Galwegians utility back Cormac Brennan, still in his first year with Connacht’s academy, could make his senior debut off the bench.

“Our squad depth is strong in all positions except 10 and 15 so to lose AJ [MacGinty] to injury, have Shane [O’Leary] go down with sickness at the start of a short week and then have Tiernan [O’Halloran] and Kieran [Marmion] drop out with injuries at kicking practise, it is a challenge to say the least,” admitted Lam.

Work ethic

“However, once again I believe it is an opportunity for us to strengthen our resolve and continue to rely on our team systems and work ethic. History and the short turnaround is certainly against us for the massive physical challenge that awaits us from Ulster, but we go there knowing that focusing on the quality of our team performance will give us the best chance of getting the points on offer.”

By contrast, for all their stuttering form of late, in addition to Payne, Les Kiss also welcomes back Rory Best and Andrew Trimble after their post-Six Nations rest.

Pete Browne replaces the injured Alan O’Connor in the second row, while the presence of Iain Henderson for his first home appearance since December should have a galvanising effect on the home crowd even if their other, inspiring ball-carrying dynamo is injured and thus replaced by the experienced Roger Wilson. In a ripple effect of the two squads’ contrasting physical health, Ulster appear to have a significantly stronger bench.

For sure, Connacht have seamlessly withstood all manner of injuries this season as players come in and fit neatly into their well-honed ball-in-hand game, which is a testimony to the coaching, the quality of their work on the training ground and their squad togetherness. And no squad is on a bigger high or has more momentum right now.

But their performance wasn’t without its imperfections and, as well as its price last week, the six-day turnaround compounds their latest round of casualties. And then, as history has demonstrated, Ulster do have home advantage, as well as the greater need for points.

ULSTER: Jared Payne; Andrew Trimble, Luke Marshall, Stuart McCloskey, Craig Gilroy; Paddy Jackson, Ruan Pienaar; Callum Black, Rory Best (capt), Ricky Lutton; Peter Browne, Franco van der Merwe; Iain Henderson, Chris Henry, Roger Wilson.

Replacements: Rob Herring, Kyle McCall, Bronson Ross, Robbie Diack, Sean Reidy, Paul Marshall, Stuart Olding, Darren Cave.
 
CONNACHT: Robbie Henshaw; Niyi Adeolokun, Bundee Aki, Peter Robb, Matt Healy; Shane O'Leary, John Cooney; Denis Buckley, Tom McCartney, Rodney Ah You; Andrew Browne, Aly Muldowney; John Muldoon (capt), James Connolly, Eoin McKeon.

Replacements: Dave Heffernan, Ronan Loughney, Finlay Bealham, Ultan Dillane, Sean O'Brien, Caolin Blade, Cormac Brennan, Danie Poolman.
 
Referee: Dudley Phillips (IRFU)
 
Overall league head to head: Played 26. Ulster 22 wins, 1 draw, Connacht 3 wins.
 
Last five meetings - 2013-14: Connacht 7 Ulster 18, Ulster 56 Connacht 12. 2014-15: Ulster 13 Connacht 10, Connacht 20 Ulster 27. 2015-16: Connacht 3 Ulster 10.
 
 Five-game formguide - Ulster: W L L W L. Connacht:  W W W W W.
 
 Leading points scorers - Ulster: Paddy Jackson 83. Connacht: Craig Ronaldson 89, Jack Carty 71.
 
 Leading try scorers - Ulster: Craig Gilroy 6, Nick Williams 5. Connacht: Matt Healy 9, Bundee Aki 5.
 
 Forecast: Ulster to win.