Wales need to open up to build points against Italy

All Wales know as they prepare to start the final round of matches against Italy in Rome is that they have to win to remain in contention for the title. That is the only part of their destiny they are in control of: they could triumph by a point and receive the trophy, if a day late, for the third time in four years or they could romp home by 50 and then see Ireland or England overtake them on points difference.

Wales have developed the ability under their head coach, Warren Gatland, to win matches that have something on them: the 2011 World Cup semi-final against France was an exception, but they did play the final hour with 14 men after Sam Warburton was sent off.

Their game, based on squeezing opponents, winning penalties up front and on the floor to gain territory and keeping risk to a minimum, coupled with selflessness in defence and collective understanding, is suited for the one-off occasion. That makes it different for them because it is, unless Ireland and England find the ascent too steep, likely to be about more than just winning.

Wales’s markedly inferior points difference to their two main rivals means that if they equal their record Six Nations victory in Rome, 30 points 10 years ago, they would have an advantage of nine over Ireland and five over England. The more the merrier Wales will be as they sit and watch the rest of the day play out.

Camouflage

Wales do not do abandon, preferring to camouflage the strike players they have behind, but if they bring out in

Leigh Halfpenny

,

George North

,

Jonathan Davies

and

Jamie Roberts

what the Lions managed in the final Test against Australia in 2013 – when a combination of power and pace delivered the series in style – Italy will be facing at least a repeat of the final day last year when they lost 52-11 at home to title-chasing England.

Wales have to use Sydney 2013 as their template, winning the match through their forwards and leaving it to the backs to decide the margin. If they throw the ball around from the start they will probably toss away their chances of the title: Italy are ranked 14th in the world for a reason, suffering from an ageing population and without a reliable goal-kicker, but they showed at Twickenham last month that they will happily join in when a match turns Barbarian with the likes of Edoardo Gori and Luca Morisi adept at exploiting space.

Wales scoring 50 and conceding 25 would be self-defeating. On their way to the title in 2008, they played Italy in the third round at home.

The first half was tight and their advantage at the break was five points but after wearing down their opponents, they used the accelerator and the 47-8 victory was their biggest in the Six Nations under Gatland until 14-man Scotland collapsed in Cardiff this time last year.

That is the approach Wales will take , although the absence of their leading props on both sides of the scrum will give Italy succour. They have scored five tries in their four matches this year with none coming from a wing: it is 1995 since they went through a championship campaign without a try from one of their wide men and it will mean Dan Biggar lying flatter at some point.

Patient

Wales will be more patient than England were a year ago when they were unshackled by the sun and conceded an interception try, five points against rather than seven for, a 12-point swing that meant all Ireland had to do in Paris later was win. The forecast for the Italian capital is again fair and without their captain,

Sergio Parisse

, the Azzurri do not appear to have anyone so capable of filling in cracks.

Wales have recovered from their opening night defeat to England largely through their defence and, another Gatland trademark, bloody-mindedness. Saturday is more a trip into the unknown, a pushing of boundaries, moving away from their source of comfort.

That assumes Italy will make up their first-up tackles, initially at least, and not immediately collapse like a battered beach deck-chair. Wales have it in them to make Ireland and England have to win by considerably more than a penalty, even if they like to pretend otherwise, and at 6-1 for the title they look a reasonable investment. Guardian Service