Gordon D’Arcy: All Blacks don’t know how to be underdogs and Ireland can exploit that

The mental and physical benefits of a two-week gap between the South Africa and Scotland World Cup pool matches was reflected in the first-half performance by Andy Farrell’s side at the Stade de France last Saturday night.

Ireland were sharp, slick and on point from the set piece to the breakdown, the back play attack to the unyielding defence, and they emphatically shut down any prospect of an upset in double-quick time.

New Zealand too have been lightly raced of late, to mix sporting metaphors, since being well beaten by France in their opening pool match, and cruising past the challenges of Namibia, Italy and Uruguay while racking up big numbers on the scoreboard.

Teams that give the All Blacks the latitude to express their talent freely pay a hefty tariff. Individually and collectively New Zealand ran rampant, squeezing the lower ranked teams at the set piece to force a plethora of penalties and as a result dominated possession and field position.

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Damian McKenzie’s broken field running and box of tricks on display against Uruguay was a joy to watch and a reminder that if you give the All Blacks an inch, you’re going to be standing behind your posts on a regular basis.

From a New Zealand perspective though it’s been all too easy, and I have my doubts about how beneficial it’s been for a group that has struggled consistently for form under Ian Foster to a point where they felt the need to parachute Joe Schmidt into the mix to try and bring direction and stability.

I know from experience that Joe instils confidence in players over time, but he hasn’t really had a great deal of that nor is he driving the ship. Ian Foster is still at the helm and from the outside looks keen to reinforce that at every opportunity in the media.

Winning emphatically can foster a sense of confidence that can quickly be stripped away when confronted by a genuine challenge. Scotland were flat track bullies against Romania and Tonga racking up the try count but suffered a similar malaise that afflicted Ireland several years ago.

Irish teams were hugely reliant on Johnny Sexton and because of that singular funnel it gave opposition a chance to shut down Ireland if they could mitigate the outhalf’s influence. Scotland’s lack of playmakers outside of Finn Russell allowed the impressive Irish defence to smoother the Scottish attack for all bar the final quarter of the game.

The next task at hand for Gregor Townsend is to figure out how to complement Russell’s talent with more decision makers on the field. Aside from James Lowe’s try on 62-seconds, Ireland were forced to defend for large periods with the tackle stats post-match exceptionally high. Caelan Dorris (22) and Josh van der Flier (21) led the way.

Scotland enjoyed liberal amounts of possession but made little inroads. The two tries they scored came as a result of broken field running, one a bounce of the ball, and the other an Irish miscommunication in defence.

Ireland were numbered up correctly on the short side but Iain Henderson, Finlay Bealham and Conor Murray didn’t communicate effectively in that instant and that allowed Sione Tuipolotu to manufacture a two on-one overlap try.

If you cast your mind back to November 2021, in a match that Ireland won 29-20 at the Aviva Stadium, the broken-field threat of New Zealand never went away. Will Jordan scored a superb try that was almost completely against the run of play. This is the threat that the All Blacks continually pose; that individual ability to break a tackle or beat defenders remains.

While their ability to dictate at set piece may have diminished in recent years, the attacking nuance and creativity has not, whether it’s Jordan, McKenzie or a player like Leicester Fainga’anuku.

Ireland embraced the chaos against the Scots, with Stu McCloskey called in early into the match and five replacements in the pack summoned before the 50th minute. Andy Farrell has talked about stepping in and stepping up and I thought McCloskey embodied that superbly at the weekend.

He had been facing the very real possibility of not featuring in the World Cup, and now played a key role in a win to secure top spot in a pool. That is what trust and respect gets you when it flows both ways.

Selections will be a key point this week for both teams and for Ireland we don’t expect much if any change unless injury intervenes. As I’m writing it looks like James Ryan will be unlikely to feature and if that transpires then Iain Henderson will be all the better for the try-scoring hit out against the Scots.

He looked sharp, provided leadership and called the lineouts exceptionally well. Ryan Baird or Joe McCarthy will back him up. It feels this is a match made for McCarthy, his size and power will help at scrums in the final quarter, as will his ability to disrupt at the mauls.

James Lowe and Mack Hansen’s fitness is important, especially the latter who has been so important to the Irish attack over the last number of games. His late sweep for the opening try, where he covered 30 metres laterally, was timed perfectly to create an overload in the 13 channel.

As he is in motion, pointing to Garry Ringrose to take the gap, he is following the ball on the premise that he will provide the link pass for Lowe to score. His work rate and in-game reading of play is a point of difference.

Another super example was when he ran a trail line off Peter O’Mahony shortly before being withdrawn for a Head Injury Assessment (HIA). His physicality to win the battle for the offload by coming from depth at pace, shows how well he reads the game.

In my experience with the All Blacks, there would be press conferences where Kiwi players might not know all the names of the Irish team and in extreme scenarios have never seen them play. There would be a doff of the cap in the aftermath but little in the build-up.

This match is historic in many ways, Ireland the number one team desperate to break their quarter-final glass ceiling, New Zealand desperate to salvage respect at home to an unforgiving fan base that demands success; the winner more than likely to make a World Cup final.

Ireland have grown accustomed to the pressure that has come with being world number one. They know they will have to be good, create and execute try scoring opportunities but there is a calmness about their approach.

This has been the most vocal I have seen any New Zealand team, they are worried about what can happen possibly a little bit more than they are confident of what they can do. The All Blacks do not know how to be the underdog. Ireland can exploit that discomfort.