LEINSTER CAN rubberstamp a home play-off tie tonight by showing just how weak Edinburgh become when two or three key components are removed from their starting XV.
In contrast, Leinster can revamp their line-up yet be just as clinical. Joe Schmidt has made 13 positional changes, with only Isa Nacewa, Gordon D’Arcy and Jamie Heaslip retained from the ruthless destruction of Cardiff.
Despite some atrocious results in the RaboDirect PRO12, Michael Bradley’s first season in charge of Edinburgh is already considered a success after last weekend’s defeat of Toulouse. They also halted a terrible league run by beating the Scarlets on March 30th.
As the Six Nations proved, they really are a sum-of-the-parts outfit. Tonight they are missing too many important individuals. Bradley has lost Scottish scrumhalf Mike Blair to shoulder damage and loosehead prop Allan Jacobsen to a facial injury.
More importantly, their high-tempo style doesn’t function as smoothly when Dave Denton and Ross Rennie are missing from the backrow. Both will have to be unleashed from the bench if Edinburgh are to disrupt Leinster’s flow of possession.
The Edinburgh style is established and effective; phase upon lateral phase with the threat of big Tim Visser or Greig Laidlaw’s boot the usual punishment.
There are, as ever with Schmidt, some interesting selections to keep everyone in camp switched on at this crucial juncture.
The standout selection is at tighthead prop. Mike Ross is rested so Connacht-bound Nathan White takes the number three jersey, with 21-year-old Martin Moore in reserve.
There is no sign of Jamie Hagan. Despite requiring a stretcher to cart him off the field after an early engagement by Ospreys Paul James on March 23rd left him with damaged rib cartilage, Hagan is not listed as injured.
Greg Feek recently name-checked Moore as one making genuine progress. Solid at scrum-time against Munster A last Friday and active around the park, Moore may get a chance to climb up the pecking order.
Heaslip leads an entirely new pack, where Devin Toner and Seán Cronin will seek to impress, with one eye on the tour of New Zealand in June, while Fergus McFadden takes the number 13 jersey as Brendan Macken provides cover due to Eoin O’Malley’s calf problem.
Edinburgh are a two-faced side. Five wins from 19 outings is a shocking return. But they’re in the semi-finals of Europe, so Bradley must be doing something right (he has credited Billy McGinty’s work in steeling up the defence).
Leinster have only lost three of their 19 PRO12 games; expect another comfortable win.
LEINSTER: I Nacewa; D Kearney, F McFadden, G D’Arcy, F Carr; I Madigan, I Boss; H van der Merwe, S Cronin, N White; D Browne, D Toner; R Ruddock, S Jennings, J Heaslip (capt). Replacements: R Strauss, J McGrath, M Moore, K McLaughlin, L Auva’a, E Redden, N Reid, B Macken.
EDINBURGH: T Brown; L Jones, N De Luca, M Scott, T Visser; G Laidlaw (capt), C Leck; K Traynor, R Ford, G Cross; E Lozada, S Cox; S McInally, R Grant, N Talei. Replacements: A Kelly, R Hislop, J Gilding, G Gilchrist, D Denton, R Rennie. P Godman, J Thompson.
Referee: P Fitzgibbon (IRFU).
Verdict: Leinster win.
