Only unticked winning box likely to stay so

New Zealand v Ireland:HISTORY BECKONS for Ireland in the Westpac Stadium tomorrow. A largely untried, undercooked All Blacks gingerly seek to overcome an eight-month post-World Cup hangover amid an exodus of playing and coaching talent. Defeat here, and Graham Henry's goose may be cooked.

The almighty Blacks look more vulnerable than at any time on home soil against Ireland since a slightly experimental and under-prepared selection were nearly caught off guard in Dunedin in 1992. If back to their best under a caretaker coaching set-up - confidence reborn within the embrace of their provinces and basking in a more relaxed Test environment featuring shorter, sharper sessions - a comparatively settled Ireland look poised to take advantage, but history underlines it's difficult.

In 20 previous meetings with New Zealand, they remain Ireland's only unticked winning box. Furthermore, the last time Ireland won away in the Southern Hemisphere was when an Ollie Campbell-inspired side won 9-3 in Sydney to complete a 2-0 series win. Since then, there have been 23 attempts in the Big Three and Argentina, and all have been lost.

Ireland's chances, appear a tad diminished by the unavailability of Luke Fitzgerald, whose sprained ankle has ruled out potentially free-est spirit and most dangerous strike runner. Paddy Wallace comes in at inside centre in a straight swap, with Geordan Murphy promoted to the bench. Curiously demoted from the 22 despite excellent form lately, for Geordie then, nothing changes.

Although manager Joey Miles has no doubt Wallace has "the skills set" to cope, it is a huge ask for him. While he has played a significant chunk of this season for Ulster at number 12, arguably his best position, he has played seven minutes or so in just three appearances from his last nine on the Ireland bench and the three minutes last time out in Twickenham constitute his only time at centre.

The combined threats of Dan Carter - assuredly the game's most dangerous running outhalf with 21 tries in 44 Tests - and Ma'a Nonu running at Ireland's 10-12 channel now look even more real.

In another potentially significant development, the IRB yesterday confirmed they had issued a protocol letter, accompanied by a DVD, to all member unions underlining "match officials must referee the Tackle (Law 15) and Ruck (Law 16) in accordance with the written Laws."

In what also seems a clear response to the pick-and-go endgames with which teams have seen out winning leads, especially Munster in the Heineken Cup final, the missive demands more vigilance from referees when "players are going to ground over or on ball carriers". The IRB also reaffirm that, no less than defending players, attacking players should not be permitted to use their hands to work the ball out of a ruck.

The respective assistant coaches, Wayne Smith and Niall O'Donovan, agreed they would have to watch closely and respond to Chris White's policing of these areas before fully realising their effect.

The All Blacks also have to revert to the game's existing laws, rather than some of the ELVs that have been trialled in the Super 14. Specifically, the sides can now revert to passing the ball back inside their 22 and kicking directly into touch, while the five-metre offside line from the base of the scrum, along with the ever-changing offside line across the pitch with each completed tackle, no longer applies.

Although O'Donovan felt all of this will have minimal impact, given the presence of Northern Hemisphere officials, he agreed "it certainly won't be a hindrance to us". Furthermore, the forecast is for showers to develop during the day, "turning to rain later."

All things considered, this may not be a classic and the Munsteresque pack will need to be mindful not to overplay their pick-and-go tactics, or at any rate make sure the players supporting the ball carrier don't go to ground with him. Hence, the battle lines look like being drawn in the scrum, lineout, maul and breakdown, not to mention the respective kicking games of Carter and Ronan O'Gara and the back threes.

While the rejuvenated John Afoa - winning his third cap since his debut against Ireland in 2005 - has been part of the Auckland Blues' domineering scrum, Marcus Horan and co have probably had their best season and are coming off a Heineken Cup final in which their scrum emerged as a potent, and even match-winning weapon against Toulouse.

Ditto their lineout, and the hope must be Paul O'Connell, especially, eradicates the memory of two undistinguished treks here by revealing the barnstorming force of nature he was two weeks ago - ie the real O'Connell.

Given Brian O'Driscoll's travails this season, and the memory of his last week in Wellington when he had his arm in a sling, he'd love nothing more than to put one over New Zealand. There were signs of a slimmer, rejuvenated figure in his penultimate outing with Leinster, at home to the Dragons. Most probably reverting to outside centre in the wake of Fitzgerald's withdrawal, the Irish captain (tryless since the World Cup defeat to Argentina last September) again looks like Ireland's most potent attacking weapon. No All Blacks backline is ever toothless, but without the likes of Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko, by their standards, their potency is less proven.

On the four occasions Ireland played New Zealand in either one-off away Tests or in the first of two-Test series, the winning margins have been eight, three, nine and 11 points. Thus, Ireland look a very good bet on the handicap, but while they have the motivation of making history, equally the All Blacks will need little reminding they cannot be the first 15 out of 1,072 to suffer the indignity of losing to Ireland for the first time.

The greater likelihood remains therefore, history will repeat itself.

OVERALL HEAD-TO-HEAD: Played 20, New Zealand 19 wins, 1 draw.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS: 2002 - New Zealand 15 Ireland 6 (Dunedin); New Zealand 40 Ireland 8 (Auckland); 2005 - Ireland 7 New Zealand 45; 2006 - New Zealand 34 Ireland 23; New Zealand 27 Ireland 17.

FIVE-GAME FORMGUIDE: New Zealand - 76-14 v Italy (RWC); 108-13 v Portugal (RWC); 40-0 v Scotland (RWC); 85-8 v Romania (RWC); 18-20 v France (RWC). Ireland - 16-11 v Italy (h); 21-26 v France (a); 34-13 v Scotland (h); 12-16 v Wales (h); 10-33 v England (a).

LEADING POINTS SCORERS: New Zealand - Dan Carter 676. Ireland - Ronan O'Gara 827.

LEADING TRY SCORERS: New Zealand - Dan Carter, Sitiveni Sivivatu 21 each, Mils Muliaina 16. Ireland - Brian O'Driscoll 31, Shane Horgan 20, Girvan Dempsey 19, Geordan Murphy 18.

BETTING (Paddy Powers): 1/14 New Zealand, 33/1 Draw, 13/2 Ireland. Handicap odds (Ireland + 16pts) 10/11 New Zealand, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.

FORECAST: New Zealand to win.