The IRFU Committee will almost certainly scrap their proposals for a restructured All-Ireland League when they next convene on Friday week after their blueprint was rebuffed by the Division Two clubs at a meeting between representatives of the union and the four divisions on Monday night.
The Union's proposed format of three divisions of 16 clubs each (as opposed to the four divisional structure currently in operation) won almost unanimous support in principle, with only one dissenter each in Divisions One and Two (Buccaneers being the former).
There was also widespread support from Divisions One, Three and Four for the Union's proposed changes to the various promotion and relegation issues so as to bring Divisions One and Two to 14 clubs each next season from their current numbers of 12 and 16.
Instead of two-up and two-down between the top two divisions, the Union's proposals would have resulted in just the bottom club in Division One going into a play-off with the third-placed club in Division Two. Furthermore, instead of three going down from Division Two and two coming up from Division Three at the end of the current campaign, only two Division Two clubs would have been relegated.
Not surprisingly therefore, the vote in favour of this proposal among Division One clubs was 11-1 (Buccaneers again being the only dissenters). However, the second division clubs voted 14-3 (relegated Monkstown are also included among their number) against the proposed changes to the relegation and promotion procedures and in favour of the status quo.
This is rather more surprising given the proposed changes would have given the Division Two clubs an extra avenue (via the third-placed club in the play-off) into Division One, as well as reducing the risk of relegation from three to two at the other end of the table.
Given at least eight clubs would still nurture hopes of finishing in the top three, and practically all of the other eight must be fearful of finishing in the bottom three, one would have thought that out of pure, short-term self-interest, the Division Two clubs would grasp this offer with both hands.
Underlining the Division Two clubs' misgivings about the proposed restructuring is undoubtedly a mistrust of their Division One brethren. However, mindful of Wanderers' legal actions against the Union at the end of last season which forced the IRFU to back down and allow both Wanderers and Ballynahinch into an expanded Division Two, they are also fearful of the legal ramifications resulting from a shifting of the goalposts so late in the season. This is especially so as some clubs have played fewer matches than others.
As the Union are themselves fearful of a legal fall-out unless they receive 100 per cent backing for their blueprint, the IRFU Committee is seemingly certain to scrap their proposals at least until next season.
This has immediate repercussions for the relegation issue in Division One especially. Where it had seemed possible that they would have been presented with an escape route from relegation via a play-off, Galwegians now look certain to be demoted unless they can win at least two, and probably all three, of their remaining games against Shannon, Ballymena and St Mary's.
Furthermore, having perhaps been lured into anticipating a reprieve from the relegation trapdoor, now Clontarf and Blackrock primarily find themselves in very real danger of accompanying Galwegians into Division Two. Both clubs are on six points with just two games each remaining; Clontarf (minus 51 points) face Cork Constitution at home and Terenure away, while Blackrock (minus 50 points) are away to Garryowen and at home to Ballymena.
Even Terenure, a point above these two with a game in hand, and to a lesser degree Ballymena (level with Blackrock and Clontarf but with three games in hand), are far from safe.
