FRENCH NOTES: We are deluding ourselves if we believe winning the Heineken Cup means the Irish national team will have success

HERESY – ANY belief or theory that is strongly at variance with established beliefs or customs.

We are deluding ourselves if we believe winning the Heineken Cup means the Irish national team will have success. The facts don’t support this assumption.

Here is the statistical relationship between winning major provincial trophies and performing on the international stage, world wide from the inception of professional rugby in 1995-96.

The French have won five Heinekens, seven Six Nations and made two world cup finals.

The English have won six ERC finals, won the Six Nations five times and they have won the World Cup and played in one final. The Scots, have “never bothered the scorer” in Europe but have won one Six Nations Championship in 1999. They have never been past the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

New Zealand have won the Tri-Nations nine times and Super rugby 10 times. They have won the World Cup and made the semis all but once.

The Springboks have won the Tri-Nations twice, Super Rugby three times and won the World Cup twice.

The Wallabies have won both competitions three times, won the World Cup and made the final.

The Welsh have never won the Heineken but they have won three Six Nations and made the semis of the World Cup. Ireland have won the ERC five times but won the Six Nations only once and have never progressed past the quarter-finals of the RWC.

The facts are irrefutable. All countries except Ireland and Wales win roughly the same number of international competitions as they do provincial competitions.

Wales have not won at provincial level yet have performed at international level. Ireland have performed in Europe but by far have the worst record internationally.

Here is the question that I need you to answer honestly.

Would the rugby public of Munster accept their provincial teams performing on par with Glasgow since 1996? No. Yet at national level that is exactly what Ireland have done. Scotland and Ireland have both won the Six Nations once since professionalism.

Get the steak out and fire up the barbie, I am ready to be burnt, there will be no recanting. Here is my first statement of heresy. Winning the Heineken Cup is not a real indication of the international standing of Irish rugby.

A country’s international record is the only true reflection of a nation’s rugby prowess.

Australian and Irish rugby are very similar in structure and the number of players involved. Why has Australian rugby been able to hold its own against the two rugby giants in the south? In the Australian rugby system the Wallaby cause comes first.

The provinces serve the national team. There are fights between the provinces and the national team but the needs of the Wallabies win and so it should.

Winning the Heineken Cup is a sensational achievement. I am not belittling its value.

However, provincial success has created the rugby equivalent of the Celtic Tiger. The numbers are undeniable but we are all choosing not to notice the national team is not winning trophies.

At provincial level all our talent is distilled into three teams. England and France have their talent spread over 12 teams, Wales over five.

As long as Leinster finish above another Irish province they qualify for Europe. No matter how bad a season a PRO 12 team has they are never relegated. If a French or English team finishes below sixth in the Top 14, they are out of Europe and financially penalised. If they are relegated to Pro D 2, they lose €1 million in funding.

This environment forces the elite French and the English players to be selected every week and allow the leading Irish players to be rested and play almost exclusively in the Heineken.

All this means that the dice are loaded in Ireland’s favour when it comes to being successful in the Heineken Cup. That is the great delusion. The Heineken Cup is not a true reflection of our national success because the playing field is not level for all the countries involved.

There is nothing wrong with this. This is a major advantage for the provinces. I personally benefited from it when I was coaching. The provinces are providing great entertainment and have attracted a new audience to rugby and are making a lot of money for rugby in Ireland.

However, the reason Irish professional rugby exists in Ireland is for the Irish national team to win.

In my opinion, this has been lost on all but a few.

I have come to another heretical conclusion. The majority of supporters are not as passionate about Ireland winning as they were 10 years ago. They get their winning feeling from the provinces.

The Aviva does not crackle and spark with Irish passion like it did at Lansdowne Road. All the supporters want Ireland to succeed but they know their province will win on the Heineken Cup stage. The edge has come off the fever.

If Ireland don’t perform in the Six Nations there is little said in the media. If Munster or Leinster miss out on the ERC play-offs, there is war. It is out of balance and it is not good for the national team’s cause.

The entire Irish system was established by the IRFU for the national team to succeed. That is correct and I totally support it. The proof of history is that the system has produced wonderful provincial results in the European Cup and sub-standard results for the national team. No one planned this. There is no conspiracy theory, but this is the reality the system has created.

The incredible talents of the golden generation and our deep collective loyalty to them have masked the needs for a dramatic injection of rugby intellect and a major change of direction for the national team.

They have to be empowered to win trophies. The next major match for Ireland is against New Zealand in June, not the Heineken Cup quarter-finals.

We all need to reaffirm in our hearts that a successful green jersey is more important that a Heineken Cup win in one coloured blue, red or white.