A drop of one place to sixth after the second day of dressage by no means rules out a medal for the Irish at the European three-day event championships in Pau, France.
Australia, team gold medallists at the last three Olympiads, were in the same slot at both Barcelona and Atlanta before their elevation to the top step of the podium, and the cross-country challenge facing the 10 teams today will undoubtedly cause a serious reshuffling of the placings before the action finishes.
A solid performance from Sydney stars Patricia Donegan and Don't Step Back has left them in 25th place on a mark of 54.4, but perfectionist Donegan was disappointed with the test, even though she has been sidelined through injury for much of the summer and the grey on the easy list as a result.
Sasha Harrison, who is just .2 of a penalty adrift in a three-way share of 26th, is also short of match-practice as her horse All Love du Fenaud has not been to a three-day event since finishing third at Punchestown last year.
The combined marks of Donegan, Harrison and Ann Hatton, who is 41st with Monatrea Bert, leaves the team sixth and 35.2 off the pace set by the defending champions, Britain. But there was some surprise in the individual rankings when Pippa Funnell, double gold medallist in Luhmuhlen two years ago, was overhauled by German champion Ingrid Klimke.
Funnell, whose test with the Irish export Supreme Rock, contained a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes, was given the benefit of the doubt by Irish judge Jean Mitchell and her mark of 210 initially boosted Funnell to the top of the class by a huge margin.
But the other two judges plumped for Ingrid Klimke as their winner after a near seamless test from this year's Luhmuhlen runner-up, Robinson's Concord, and the aggregate marks put Klimke ahead of her British rival by 4.8 penalties. Greek rider Heidi Antikatzidis, who finished sixth at the Sydney Olympics last year with the former Punchestown winner Michaelmas, is third but 12.8 in arrears.
The British do have the edge in the team competition, however, earning a 16.8 penalty cushion for today's cross-country over Germany, with the Italians a further four adrift in third. The Italians and French are just .4 apart in third and fourth, with the Spanish five clear of the Irish quartet.
Ann Hatton will be first out to test the water for the Irish today and is planning to take the straight route on the 29-fence cross-country.
Individual placings (after dressage) - 1, Germany's Robinson's Concord (Ingrid Klimke), 33.0 penalties; 2, Britain's Supreme Rock (Pippa Funnell), 37.8; 3, Greece's Michaelmas (Heidi Antikatzidis), 45.8; 4, France's Daryus de Chamois HN (Aurelien Kahn), 46.0; 5, Germany's Unsung Hero (Bettina Hoy), 46.2; 6, Italy's Loro Piana Cool 'n' Breezy (Fabio Magni), 46.4; Irish placings - 25, Don't Step Back (Patricia Donegan), 54.4; equal 26, All Love du Fena ud (Sasha Harrison), 54.6; 41, Monatrea Bert (Ann Hatton), 61.0; 60, Sportsfield Iceman (Carol Gee), 70.8.
Team placings - 1, Britain, 134.8 penalties; 2, Germany, 151.6; 3, Italy, 155.6; 4, France, 156.0; 5, Spain, 165.0; 6, Ireland, 170.0.