Rugby Internationals Ireland v Australia: Venue: Croke Park Kick-off: 3pm, Sunday ON TV: RTÉ 2, BBC 2.SUNDAY AFTERNOONS don't compare to Saturday nights, all the more so given the Saturday night that's in it, and there might be a twinge of "after the Lord Mayor's ball" come 3pm tomorrow.
Nevertheless, this is a homecoming of sorts for the newly minted Grand Slam champions, given added lustre by some bloke called O’Driscoll – still as good as ever – leading out his country in his 100th Test match.
Thus, while there is no World Cup qualifying place at stake for two countries who will meet at RWC 2011 in the pool stages, it may still indicate whether that momentous day in Cardiff last March was the summit of a golden generation’s ambitions or something of a catalyst. But there are so many variables, with another rearing its head yesterday.
Jerry Flannery did not complete the training session due to his calf tightening up, and, although manager Paul McNaughton said “we expect him to play”, as a precautionary measure John Fogarty was called up from the A team.
While Cian Healy looks ready-made for this level, if Flannery doesn’t play, this would mean two debutants in the front-row alongside John Hayes, who hasn’t played in six weeks.
As it has not been decided whether Fogarty or Seán Cronin would start, this suggests it will be the 31-year-old Fogarty (like Flannery, an ex-Connacht hooker) rather than the 23-year-old Cronin, who is in his second season with Connacht.
This would have implications not just for the Irish scrum but, bearing in mind the unholy mess and negligible impact of modern-day scrums, the lineout. Nor, in any case, is the Wallabies’ scrum the Achilles’ heel of yore.
The Australian lineout missed Nathan Sharpe in Twickenham last week, and with Rocky Elsom more of a primary ball-winner and the main defensive lineout man, it’s reduced his ability to do his thing, though Wycliff Palu is seemingly back to his best.
The Wallabies have had problems “backing up” performances, but their weaknesses appear minimal, and in most respects, not least their backplay, they looked light years more accomplished in basic skills and the use of options and decoy runners than, admittedly, a terrible England.
Their breakdown play was heavily punished by Bryce Lawrence last week, but they reacted well and George Smith has been rotated with his heir apparent, David Pocock.
Apart from the template provided by Leinster against Munster this season, Ulster’s work at the breakdown has been the best.
With Will Genia giving them a sounder platform off the base, Australia have also added a second alternate playmaker in the dangerous Quade Cooper, all of which has given Ireland’s Australian defensive coach Less Kiss more to think about.
“It’s given them a lot more breadth. And that’s important. It’s something that Robbie’s been searching for. It makes them a dangerous unit. They’re not top three for nothing and we know that.”
While Ireland go into this game on the back of an eight-match winning run – with a November hat-trick offering the prospect of an Irish all-time record – they haven’t beaten one of the Tri Nations in three attempts, dating back to the 21-6 win over Australia at a sodden Lansdowne Road three years ago.
Then though, Australia were in decidedly experimental mode and, seemingly, a somewhat dilettante mood too.
Four years ago though, after the debilitating Lions tour of 2005, Ireland were admittedly without the talismanic pair of O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell, but still had eight of those Lions tourists in their starting line-up, and were swatted 30-14 a week after being thrashed 45-7 by New Zealand.
Amid signs of another post-Lions hangover, few players come into this game in good form.
Can Donncha O’Callaghan and O’Connell rediscover their physical dynamism, and ditto Stephen Ferris, who has had a truncated campaign thus far? Tomás O’Leary is, understandably, still gradually inching his way back to his best, but arguably a bigger concern is the form of Ronan O’Gara and, bearing in mind how Jonny Wilkinson kept Australia at bay, the O’Gara-Paddy Wallace, 10-12 defensive axis.
A tad disconcertingly, O’Gara’s revamped kicking technique appears to have a few glitches. He needs a big game to put the horrors of his Lions’ endgame behind him and rediscover the feel-good factor from his heroics in Cardiff.
Although Wallace, O’Driscoll, Luke Fitzgerald and Tommy Bowe look in very good nick, how much territory the halves gain and how much they can bring the best out of the riches outside them will be key.
For if the Irish halves perform loosely and these Wallabies start running at them, they have match -winners in Giteau, Cooper, the powerful Digby Ioane and a very tidy and efficient outside three.
These look like two fairly evenly matched sides, including two of the more skilful backlines around, and while the kicking games will be critical, it would be refreshing to see some of that running ability and even an occasional counter-attack. The state of the pitch will be interesting for the forecast is for a 20-30 per cent chance of showers and breezy conditions after a fairly sodden few days.
Plenty of variables then, and a few too many for comfort. But it could be that the players can dip into the feel-good factor of last season, and that the Declan Kidney brains trust can work the oracle in galvanising the newly minted Grand Slam champions to a narrow win.
LAST FIVE MEETINGS: (2003) Australia 17 Ireland 16 (Melbourne, RWC); (2005) Ireland 14 Australia 30 (Dublin); (2006) Australia 37 Ireland 15 (Perth); (2006) Ireland 21 Australia 6 (Dublin); (2008) Australia 18 Ireland 12 (Melbourne).
OVERALL HEAD-TO-HEAD: Played 27 – Australia 19 wins, Ireland 8 wins.
BIGGEST WINS: Ireland – 27-12, Brisbane 1979 and 21-6, Dublin 2006. Australia – 46-10, Brisbane, 1999).
BETTING(Paddy Powers): 8/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 11/10 Australia. Handicap odds (Australia + 2pts) 10/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Australia.
FORECAST: Ireland to win.
