If they get physical and stop Estonia having time on the ball, Ireland can progress, writes BRIAN KERR

DESPITE MY usual optimism, once the draw was made for the Faroe Islands’ Euro 2012 qualifying group I knew it was unlikely we were going to beat Italy, Serbia or Slovenia – Estonia and Northern Ireland, possibly, the games where we might achieve results.

We agreed with Estonia to use the August friendly date to play our opening group game in Tallinn, and before then I had the chance to go and watch them at home to Croatia in a friendly. What I saw kind of surprised me in that they were a very, very competent, well organised and disciplined team. They comfortably got a 0-0 draw. There had a clear pattern of play and the key players then are still their key players now.

The captain, Raio Piiroja, is the big fella at the back, Taavi Rahn – who wasn’t in the team in Tallinn, but played against us in the Faroes – the other centre back. It’s usually a three-man midfield, Konstantin Vassiljev off the front man, with Aleksandr Dmitrijev and Martin Vunk behind.

Their system is normally 4-4-1-1 when playing teams they would respect and maybe be slightly fearful of – which will be the case when they play Ireland. But, as usual, everyone playing against the Faroes plays 4-4-2, which usually becomes 2-4-4.

Their option when not allowed space and time in the midfield areas was for Piiroja or Rahn, or the full-backs, to play it long from the back to Andres Oper, the big man up front who has since been replaced in team by Jarmo Ahjupera, with Kaimar Saag another striker they use.

I expected Tarmo Kink of Middlesbrough to play on the left wing, with Sander Puri on the right, but as it turned out Kink was up front with Oper in their 4-4-2, Dmitri Kruglov on the wing. Kink’s a very adaptable player – and he’s capable of scoring goals, as he did in Serbia from long range.

We knew we’d also have to deal with a big set-piece threat from their centre backs and tall front men, with such precise delivery from Vassiljev. And it will be important for Ireland not to give away frees in central shooting areas, Vassiljev (who got five goals in nine qualifying games) can be deadly from 30 yards in. And he whips in wonderful free-kicks from wide positions.

But 28 minutes in we got our goal. Estonia were shocked by the little Faroes taking the lead, so they upped the pace. But, as the clock crept towards 90 we were envisioning a glorious result.

And then, with a passionate crowd roaring them on, they got their equaliser – and, then, their winner. Both from set-pieces, both from big men, both in injury time. In my long career as a manager I almost never felt so deflated. Indeed, it took me and my assistant, John McDonnell, months to recover. The devastation in the dressingroom is in my mind to this day.

Our chance of revenge came in June. They were without a few players. They had an open training session the night before and with a little disguise John, myself and the goalkeeping coach went to have a look.

The key, again, was not to give them too much time on the ball to pick out their passes, especially Vassiljev. We also doubled up on Kink whenever he was in possession. We felt we could deal with their forwards, it was in midfield and out wide that we had to be at our best.

As the game developed we could see they weren’t quite at the races. We were competitive in midfield, prevented them from getting any rhythm, and we caused their defence problems by getting in behind them, with pace.

We got our break with a penalty, going in one ahead at half-time – an unusual experience for us. We expected them to up the pace in the second half, but we got another penalty, a minute after the break. Sergei Pareiko saved it, but Ambjorn Hansen put away the rebound.

Now they looked really ruffled. And their frustration was obvious – Puri picked up a second yellow for kicking the ball away and was sent off with half an hour to go. All the qualities I had seen in them before evaporated.

We dominated that last half hour, they were restricted to hitting long balls up to the big men. We hung on, it was a glorious night for us.

So, that was my experience of Estonia in our group.

They were much more effective in the group when they were the underdogs. That’ll be the scenario for them again against Ireland.

They’re a good workmanlike team, a good spirit, good morale about them in general. They’re well organised at set-pieces, they have a big physical threat in the penalty area when high balls come in. Kruglov is their long throw merchant, they like to push up their centre-halves in to the box in that situation.

I’m sure Giovanni Trapattoni and his staff will do their homework, just as we did. They’ll see the same things I saw: they have a consistent pattern of play, they like to build it up from the back, and they’ll probably play 4-4-1-1. That will give them three in midfield, when needed, and Ireland have had trouble with that. They’ll try to pass it around, but they always have the big man up front as a target when they can’t get through the middle.

When we played them in Tallinn they were 94 in the Fifa world rankings, we were 117. I couldn’t have envisaged them making the play-offs then – although they were helped by Serbia’s troubles. But they were the fifth-ranked team in the group and finished second.

They’re risen remarkably since then, their competitive results have been very good. They’ve a lot more confidence now, and they have an ability to pull matches out of the fire with late goals when it looks like they’re slipping away – as we learnt to our cost.

We didn’t have the physicality or the cuteness to hang on in Tallinn when the onslaught came late on. Ireland should have both. All logic suggests we should beat them. We should be far too good for them.