Henderson may miss final cut

D-day looms tomorrow when the 30 players chosen for Ireland's World Cup panel will be announced. Some will be put out of their agony, for others the agony will only be starting.

Decision-day, meanwhile, comes today courtesy of the final run-out between Ireland and Argentina, when the M&Ms, Matt Mostyn and Mike Mullins, are likely to come under the microscope; the former from the start and the latter at some point during the match.

Thus, there is still a chance that both or either could play themselves into or out of the squad. Waiting in the wings, so to speak, will be James Topping and Denis Hickie. The former has performed encouragingly since his comeback for first Ulster and then Ireland in last week's match in Connacht, and Warren Gatland is a known fan. By comparison, although Hickie began the season in fine shape and with a couple of opportunist tries against Munster, he has since been a victim of Leinster's travails and then lateral ligament damage on Tuesday against Argentina.

Mostyn scored five tries in his first three games in the green jersey, admittedly against a hotchpotch collection of opponents in Italy A, the New South Wales Country Cockatoos, and New South Wales, but the jury is still out on whether he has the necessary defensive skills.

Most possibly this issue has still to be resolved and will be partly decided upon today's evidence. But it could well pan out that too much knowledge (of Hickie) will be a dangerous thing (for Hickie), whereas the opposite will be true of Mostyn. A similar scenario applies in the midfield, where the fourth centre spot seems to be between Mullins and Rob Henderson. The latter turned up for the preliminary squad get-together in the shape of his life, only to be picked for Leinster last Tuesday (come into the parlour, said the spider to the fly).

By comparison, Mullins's eye-catching ability to take tackles and offload contributed to four of Munster's 10 tries against Connacht. It was his good luck that he was given another 10 minutes at the Sportsground last Saturday when, if the truth be told, his late try was utterly meaningless.

Henderson has been Ireland's biggest impact player off the bench this past year (an area where Ireland haven't had much impact outside of the pack), galvanising Ireland's midfield against the English and the Scots. Very much a victim of Ireland's confusing, behind the gainline, running tactics against Italy, when a broken nose forced his half-time departure, he's had no real chance since and would be the unluckiest of all to miss out.

Most World Cup squads will probably have a 16-14, forwards-backs breakdown, in which case both the aforementioned centres would make it, or alternatively the management could include another winger or even a half-back.

The need for a third player in one of the specialist positions is lessened by the ruling which permits a replacement at 48 hours' notice. Bad news then, for the likes of Ronan O'Gara. Admirers of the talented Con out-half increase by the game and he is a more natural footballer than Eric Elwood, who's had a bad run this past year with club and province (three wins in 21 by my calculations).

Perhaps, with hindsight, there was an argument for taking O'Gara to Australia or even in playing him in Leinster's team last Tuesday. But as things stand, his current rise amounts to a good run with Con in the AIL (to Test rugby what chalk is to cheese), and a good run with Munster against Leinster and Connacht, and a delightful little cameo for Ireland last week.

By comparison, Elwood has 31 caps, has bought the T-shirt and has been such a regular member of the squad that he knows the calls and moves inside out. Hence, Lenihan's surprisingly candid remark as to which player Ireland would want coming off the bench for an injured David Humphreys with 20 minutes left on the clock in a World Cup quarter-final, has a certain validity.

Another vexed issue facing the selectors is whether they accommodate a 17th forward, or primarily a fifth prop. That might seem a tad excessive on the surface, but makes sense when examined. For starters, Peter Clohessy is Ireland's oldest squad member and while he is a world-class scrummager with excellent hands and the heart of a lion, being the first-choice loose-head and the second-choice tight-head would constitute a heavy workload given, say, a schedule of six games in three weeks.

All the more so as there were apparently minor doubts about Paul Wallace's body during the week, the latest concern being a shoulder complaint. Indeed, it was interesting to note the presence of Angus McKeen as Ireland's 23rd player in training at Greystones this week.

Although Kieron Dawson has his detractors and his presence in the squad has "amazed" his London Irish coach Dick Best "because he is a long way off the pace", it would be surprising and disappointing if he doesn't make it.

Best's quote can be taken with a pinch of salt given his previous championing of the player and the fact that London Irish are likely to be without Dawson for the next two months. Sure, Dawson made little impact for Leinster on Tuesday, rarely getting the ball in his hands, but his defensive positioning as the first-up tackler was solid and he made his tackles.

Dawson will be assuredly fitter in a month's time, abetted by a couple of run-outs of some dimension against Munster and Ulster, and, anyway, is the most viable openside alternative to Andy Ward. Nay, the only one.

Hence, the squad named on Sunday morning might read: O'Shea, Dempsey, Bishop, Topping, Mostyn, O'Driscoll, Maggs, Bell, Mullins, Humphreys, Elwood, Tierney, O'Meara; Clohessy, Fitzpatrick, Wood, Nesdale, Wallace, Corrigan, McKeen, Johns, O'Kelly, Davidson, Casey, Brennan, Corkery, O'Cuinneagain, Miller, Ward and Dawson.