Head-to-head records can be pivotal

Back-to-back wins are laudable, but, as GERRY THORNLEYargues, emerging with the better head-to-head record from December ties is critical

IT’S FUNNY how some things are cast in stone in the Heineken Cup; like no team progressing from the pool stages after losing their opening two matches. If any outfit appeared cable of bucking that rend it was Northampton, but following their opening two defeats to Munster and the Scarlets, injuries, ill-discipline and a soft-looking outside defence condemned last season’s beaten finalists to a defeat in Castres which definitely extinguishes their hopes of reaching the last eight.

This is in stark contrast to the Saints’ six wins from six in their pool last season, which maintained another of the competition’s records – no team has gone through a season unbeaten.

To these can be added another one, for emerging from the pivotal head-to-head rounds with one’s head above water is pretty essential too. Given Leinster, Munster and Ulster are all well placed to back up last weekend’s wins, this is promising. Completing doubles over the same opponents on successive weekends in the pivotal third and fourth rounds of the pool stages is no guarantee of progress, but it doesn’t do a team any harm.

Back-to-back wins over the same opponents are becoming difficult. In the mid-noughties they were more common, reaching a high of nine doubles in December 2006. But there were only five the following season, and just six out of 12 in each of the last three.

Whatever about completing back-to-back wins, it’s fairly imperative to emerge with a superior head-to-head record from the December rounds. In each of the last three seasons, all six pool winners and the two best runners-up have emerged from these games with a superior head-to-head record, be it match points, try tallies or points aggregate.

In the last seven seasons, the only slight exception to this trend was in December ’07, when London Irish shared wins with Perpignan and won the pool by two points despite an inferior head-to-head record with the French side, based on tries scored over the two games. Even then though, Perpignan qualified with them as one of the two best runners-up. Similarly, Northampton traded wins but lost out to Toulouse on match points in 2004, but still qualified behind the French team as one of the best two runners-up.

The back-to-back rounds were introduced along with the current format of six pools each comprising of four teams in the 1999-2000 season, with Munster grasping their importance in registering consecutive wins over Colomiers en route to earning a home quarter-final as pool winners and ultimately reaching the final, where they lost to Northampton.

By contrast, although Leinster avenged their defeat in Paris to Stade Français at Donnybrook a week later, their inferior try tally enabled Stade to progress.

In the last 12 seasons, Munster have completed seven doubles, or back-to-back wins, in rounds three and four. On the four occasions they won the away leg first they went on to complete the double at home a week later, and three of those were against Welsh opposition, including Sunday’s opponents, the Scarlets, in December 2007. Indeed, as in 2005-06 when completing a December double over the Newport, which was sniffed at for Munster’s failure to score any try bonus points, Munster went on to win the trophy.

Even on the five occasions they traded wins with their December opponents, Munster always emerged with a superior head-to-head record over the two games.

The ramifications of the back-to-back rounds were underlined in the 2003-04 season when Munster responded to a 22-11 defeat at Kingsholm a week later in Thomond Park with a bonus-point win. With both teams finishing on 24 points, this was critical in earning Munster top place in the group and with it a home quarter-final against Biarritz (which, with Anthony Foley’s hat-trick they duly won) while condemning Gloucester to a last-eight tie away to Wasps, which they lost 34-3.

Two seasons ago, Munster had scraped through 24-23 against Perpignan despite being outscored by three tries to nil thanks to the boot of you-know-who, whereupon they travelled to Stade Aime Giral a week later and made off with an unlikely bonus-point win.

It’s also worth noting even in the midst of last season’s crushing disappointment, when missing out on the pool stages for the first time in 13 seasons, Munster still emerged with a better head-to-head record over the Ospreys from their back-to-back clashes. Indeed, it was Toulon’s back-to-back double over London Irish which made all the difference, the French side’s win at the Madejski Stadium constituting the only away victory in the group’s matches and enabling them to edge out Munster by one point.

Leinster’s record in these pivotal December matches does not appear unduly worse. They have six back-to-back doubles over the last 12 years and, overall, have emerged with a better head-to-head record all but twice. Yet, more often pitched into the home leg first, their history is littered with examples of them failing to press home a considerable advantage from the first clash in Dublin.

The doubles in successive years at the start of the millennium over Northampton, Newport and Montferrand were highly praiseworthy. However, in December ’04, a week after running up 90 points on Bourgoin, they nearly contrived to lose the return a week later and, a year on, after running up 50 on the same opponents, did lose the return clash. They would also lose the return meeting with Castres three seasons ago a week after a 30-point home win; and while that helped to condemn them to an away quarter-final (aka Bloodgate) it didn’t stop them finally winning the tournament.

Indeed, while often making things more difficult for themselves, Leinster still qualified for the last eight each time, as they did after completing the double over Agen in ’07. Nonetheless, the lamentable defeat in Edinburgh a week after winning at the RDS in ’07 might be considered a nadir.

By contrast, one of the highs was their only Heineken Cup defeat of last season, when a side without Brian O’Driscoll travelled to face a Clermont side hell-bent on avenging their one-point quarter-final defeat at the RDS the previous April, and earned a bonus-point defeat before winning the return by three tries to one.

Ulster have had a poor record in the back-to-back rounds, although last season ended an 12-year odyssey for a last eight place with wins at home and away to Bath.