Four into two just won't go

Emmet Malone considers the bottleneck at the top of Group Four and gets the views of press-box peers

Perhaps sensing the rate at which public interest in the national team is fading as it staggers from one calamity to another, the French Football Federation recently moved September's World Cup qualifier against the Faroe Islands to Lens.

The city is only an hour from Paris but its stadium has roughly half the capacity of the capital's Stade de France.

And so there need be no fear of large numbers of empty seats casting a further pall over what has developed into an unexpectedly tough campaign for Raymond Dominech's once-highly-fancied Group Four contenders.

So tight is the race between the French, Irish, Swiss and Israelis for a place at next year's World Cup finals in Germany, however, that the result in Lens could still prove critical.

A comprehensive win might give the group's top seeds an edge in a battle that looks increasingly likely to be settled by reference to head-to-head results, goal difference and even goals scored.

To date, though, the French have disappointed in just about every way and either Switzerland or Ireland could progress automatically if they can avoid a slip-up in Cyprus and pick up at least four points from their games against each other and France.

But Switzerland also have a crucial game in hand on Ireland, against Israel at home.

The Israelis are still targeting a place in the play-offs and so, as the campaign breaks for the summer, all four managers and their players insist they can be in Germany next summer.

Among football correspondents who saw Ireland's game against Israel last week there is, it seems, no more of a consensus on who it is that will emerge as group winners or runners up.

MediaViews: Thoughts from abroad

Jean-Michel Rouet

(L'Equipe, France)

"The fate of the group is still in France's hands, I think, but they have not looked good enough to win this group over the past year and I cannot see what is going to change after the summer.

"Lansdowne Road will be a tough place for France to go while the Switzerland game will be like a derby and so it is difficult to predict. Ireland, for me, are the favourites but I believe their visit to Cyprus will be crucial because it will not be an easy game and they cannot afford to drop any points.

"Also they are in the better position because they play their two main rivals at home. I was at the Israel game and felt that some of the Irish papers afterwards were harsh in their criticism of Brian Kerr and his players. For more than 10 minutes Ireland played with 10 men but it was as though they had 15 and Israel nine. The result was a miracle for Israel.

"Playing in Dublin they can beat France but only if their key players are fit and free from suspension."

Prediction: 1, Ireland; 2, France; 3, Switzerland; 4, Israel.

Ouriel Daskan

(Haaretz, Israel)

"It is still a group, I believe, in which quality will tell in the end. The French have the best individual players and apart from against the Irish they have been unlucky not to win the games they have drawn so I think that in the end they will qualify.

"Each team has shown its limitations by now and from what I have seen it is hard for me to imagine how Israel could win in Switzerland or how the Swiss could take three points from Dublin. The French, on the other hand, have enough between them to beat the Irish or the Swiss and even if they go into their last game (against Cyprus in Paris) needing to win by five goals they should be able to save themselves when they have to.

"As for Israel, I really cannot understand how they have come this far in the competition without being beaten. It is, I think, a tribute to the spirit of the players and the coaching ability of Avraham Grant but neither will be enough to see them through to the end."

Prediction: 1, France; 2, Ireland; 3, Switzerland; 4, Israel.

Thomas Schifferle

(Tages-Anzeiger, Switzerland)

"For me, Israel will fall away because they have already ridden their luck too much and I simply cannot see them winning their last three games - well, not the one here against Switzerland anyway.

"After that the group is almost impossible to predict. Switzerland is a small country and we should have no right to expect to qualify from this group but still we have a great chance. Maybe I am being too optimistic but I think we might do it and if so the game in Dublin looks like offering a better chance for us to get the win we need than the one at home to France.

"The French should win their two home games but after that I'm not so sure about them because they score so few goals.

"Of course, Ireland could do well against both France and Switzerland but Damien Duff will need to do more for the team than he did in the last two games while the Irish are also perhaps too heavily reliant on the two Keanes."

Prediction: 1, Switzerland; 2, France; 3, Ireland; 4, Israel.