Expert keeps his Eye On The Ball

Column: Charlie Swan looks ahead to the festival and outlines the reasons behind his choices for the big races.

Sometimes at Cheltenham a jockey is left with no other option but to take a chance. That's no bad thing either, because if there is one thing I learned about riding at the track it is that you can't have hard and fast rules. It's just too tricky for that.

Cheltenham demands the two hardest things from a horse. He has to able to stay and he has to have enough cruising speed to hold a position.

If both of those are missing, the horse has no business being there. If only one element is present, that's where taking the chance comes in.

I remember riding Fissure Seal in the Pertemps Final and he simply wasn't able to go the pace. I took the decision to go down the inside all the way down the back straight. They weren't the greatest horses in the world but there were enough of them. At one stage I found myself pushed in off the hurdles track so much that we were heading for the middle of the open ditch.

But there was nothing else for it. He wasn't able to go around them so I took a chance. Luckily, it paid off.

If there is one race I would love to get the chance to ride again it is the Stayers Hurdle, when Baracouda just pipped me on Bannow Bay. I should have won that and I have no doubt we would have if I'd gone with my instinct. We were travelling so well when Baracouda looked in trouble that I should have kicked. I'd have got first run and there is no way he would have got to us. But I was in a situation where I was riding to instructions and I over-did it.

As a rule you don't want to be too near the pace for too long. A lot of the time they go too fast at Cheltenham and it's possible to ride a race from behind. You can see now how someone like Ruby Walsh is always thinking his way through a race. He is a good example, very rarely in the wrong place.

The race I remember with most affection from my riding career at Cheltenham is Istabraq's third Champion Hurdle. They went a real good gallop and I took my time up the inner. That gave me a lot of satisfaction.

Having done it before at Cheltenham is a big advantage, so Hardy Eustace must have a great chance of winning the Champion Hurdle again. The same applies to Brave Inca, who must have a shout too.

But the way the ground is drying out over there I give Accordion Etoile a big chance. He is a horse I have followed throughout his career and he is improving the whole time. The race looks very open this year but the ground could be crucial.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a different story.

I think Moscow Flyer is by far the best horse in the race, different class, and bar a fall he will win. I know Azertyuiop and Well Chief are very good horses, but Moscow Flyer is the best I've ever seen over two miles.

Even when he was hurdling I used to dread him against Istabraq. The three times they took each other on, Istabraq fell twice and Moscow fell the other time.

Best Mate had looked the obvious one for the Gold Cup, but even before he was ruled out I thought Beef Or Salmon had a major chance. He will need to travel and jump quicker than he normally has to in Ireland, but I wouldn't give up on him.

At this stage, however, if I were to pick a couple of horses to side with I would go with Royal Paradise in the SunAlliance Hurdle and Eye On The Ball in the Bumper. I think Royal Paradise is a really good horse. The danger is if the ground gets too fast, but I think he has an excellent chance.

Eye On The Ball is, I believe, an exceptional horse. He won at Roscommon in August and then wasn't seen again until Christmas, when he didn't get a clear run behind Merdeka at Leopardstown. He was trained by Timmy Hyde then but he is now with Mouse Morris. I haven't ridden him, but I have ridden in pieces of work alongside him and I think he has to have a big chance on Wednesday.

I run two horses at the festival myself. Ground Ball was runner-up to St Pirran in the Grand Annual last year and goes for the same race again. Oh Be The Hokey runs in the Kim Muir and is in very good form.

The problem with both is they are quite well exposed, so something well handicapped will probably be too good for them.