GAELIC GAMES: Seán Moran talks to Donegal's Jimmy McGuinness who, having experienced defeat to both Armagh and Dublin this season, believes Dublin can shade Sunday's encounter.
Although both Dublin and Armagh are provincial champions and have no experience of this year's football qualifiers, there is one team common to their progress. Donegal lost the Ulster final to Armagh and were beaten after a replay in the All-Ireland quarter-finals by Dublin.
Their centrefielder Jimmy McGuinness is accordingly in a good position to judge the relative merits of this Sunday's unbeaten semi-finalists. Accepting that the match is finely balanced he believes "Dublin might shade it". Although Donegal looked the better team in the drawn match with Dublin, they were emphatically beaten in the replay.
"Dublin played extremely well the second day," he says. "They had their homework done and had learned from the first match. Their forwards closed us down very quickly. All year we had tried to follow the same game plan. Break the tackle and come out with ball at the back. The second day when our corner backs or half backs got on the ball they were hit hard so we were forced into lateral passes. That only draws more players onto you and you end up turning over possession."
McGuinness believes Armagh's record at Croke Park can potentially become a factor. It's 25 years since the county won a championship match at headquarters, a span of time that covers eight matches.
"Armagh might have preferred to play the Sligo replay in Croke Park. If they'd won it there (rather than in Navan) they wouldn't be under the same pressure this weekend. I think they knew that before the replay. Some of the players were annoyed at not getting the chance to go back."
Whatever about the county's visits to Croke Park in the 1970s and '80s in the heyday of Dublin and Kerry, Armagh's recent visits have been more tantalising. The last three defeats by margins of four points, three points (after extra time) and one point have been to the ultimate All-Ireland champions.
In each of those cases there has been a suspicion that the county's overly cautious approach has hindered their chances and McGuinness believes that the Ulster champions must be more adventurous.
"It will be very interesting to see who plays football. If Armagh play - I'm not saying they're negative but they can be defensive - they are a very good side and I think we'll have a brilliant game. But if they decide on a holding game and getting players back I think Dublin will do damage."
McGuinness sees Armagh's physical strength as one of their big assets.
"They're very strong in the tackle and brilliant at targeting the ball. In the Ulster final three or four times one of our players was going down the wing and got a one-shot tackle. The ball flew away and possession was lost."
In the wake of Kerry's attacking performance Sunday's teams will be playing for underdog status in the final. McGuinness feels that this is a very attractive proposition for either Dublin or Armagh.
"I think this suits them very well. They'll be happy with Kerry's performance. It means that one of them will slide into the final with nothing much between them but Kerry as red-hot favourites. If I was Páidí Ó Sé I'd be concerned because you can't shut out all the hype. Some of it gets to players. We saw that last year."
Sunday will be Dublin's fifth big match at Croke Park. McGuinness doesn't believe that this familiarity gives the Leinster champions an unfair advantage, arguing that the venue should lift all teams.
"It was the same for us against Meath in the qualifier. We knew they'd know every inch of it but it lifted us. Armagh will say that this is the ideal place to beat Dublin. Back in 1992 when we played them in the All-Ireland we were fired up by the thought of beating the Dubs on their patch."
But ultimately he feels Dublin will survive.
"It's not that I believe there are question marks over Armagh. It's more that Dublin are coming with a young team. They've been asked questions in every game and have found the answers. Against Donegal they learned and improved in the replay. If they can do that again in the semi-final, I think they'll do it."