Mayo have had to show character in the way they've won matches and have come out on the right side of narrow results without playing exceptionally well. It could be argued there's one big game in Mayo if they go in with the right attitude and there won't be as much pressure on them because the level of expectation in the county isn't particularly high.

I remember in 1996 when they went into an All-Ireland semi-final against Kerry with very little expected of them, they produced a huge game that day and beat Kerry out the door. I can see circumstances in which they might be able to surprise Dublin, but it would be a surprise.

Looking at Dublin in a number of areas you can see they have improved since last year despite the undemanding level of opposition they have faced. Last year they gave lots of room to opposing forwards but they have raised their work-rate and physical input and some might say, have developed a cynical edge.

There were a couple of incidents in the Westmeath match - Paul Casey provoking an injured player and Shane Ryan mouthing at an opponent - that seemed to cross the line between a winning mentality and a win-at-all-costs mentality. I would hope those incidents were isolated ones.

Mayo will be the best team Dublin have met this year. Dublin have dominated midfield in all of their recent games and even against Longford, when you take the whole 70 minutes, they had the better of that. That has meant a huge amount of possession for their forward line as well as protection for any defensive frailties that may be there.

Everyone came out of the Westmeath match saying the full-back line did brilliantly and that Paul Griffin tackled brilliantly and his technique was wonderful and so on, but you'd have to say the defence was never under real pressure and the attack always had a greater than average supply to win a game.

One of Mayo's big assets this year, even when playing poorly in Connacht, was their midfield. Apart from maybe the drawn Laois game, Ronan McGarrity has had a very good season and Pat Harte has blossomed. He's 24 or 25 and has brought his club form on to the county scene. Then on the bench there's Barry Moran and David Brady.

Conor Mortimer has been the main threat in the Mayo forward line and has kept them in the championship. He has become more of a ball winner. But Mayo haven't come up against as physical a full-back line as they will tomorrow. Billy Joe Padden is doubtful but there is some speculation, if he doesn't make it, Harte could be moved to the wing where he has played for his club.

This would give Mayo more of a threat and could be covered by the other options they have at midfield.

The forwards also need to be able to attack without always focusing the ball on Ciarán McDonald because that means opponents only need to shut him down to stop the forwards.

Mayo's big problem this year is they've scored just two goals in the championship, against London and Leitrim - despite setting up an awful lot of goal chances. In summary, there may be question marks over the Dublin defence but there are also questions about Mayo's ability to convert chances into scores.

There are also positives about the way Dublin have managed to win so much ball, to dominate in the forwards and shut out at the back. They can only play the opposition they meet.

Ciarán Whelan is having his best season so far, as is Shane Ryan who was only seen as a stopgap at midfield. Bryan Cullen's switch to centre back, although much speculated about, has turned out to be so successful he's probably the one player Paul Caffrey couldn't replace. It's not just he's playing well himself but the way he's got others playing around him.

One clear advantage for Dublin is that after the Longford game Caffrey got to perform his surgery and knows what his best team is. Mayo are still finding out - at a dangerous time.

I don't think Croke Park experience is going to win this for either team. Dublin will try for a whirlwind start and try to take control of the game at an early stage but the longer Mayo hang on the more the pressure grows on Dublin.

I'd say we'll have a good idea of who's going to play Kerry after about 20, 25 minutes, and I think it'll be Dublin.